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AbAx was kind enough to forward me this post. Yes, I recall this.
I'm speculating that we should have a bottom on 7/29 based on cycles. If
we do, good. However, I don't trade cycles so I was just adding more
info to the thread. This is not what I would call one of my 'official'
forecasts. Anyway, still looks like a bottom to me. :)
rick
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From: "AbAx" <alec@xxxxxxx>
To: ricrat@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Date: Tue, 29 Jul 1997 13:26:26 +0000
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Subject: Re: FW: Cross-Method EP
Priority: normal
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> Date: Fri, 25 Jul 1997 18:44:45 -0700
> Reply-to: ricrat@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> From: " Rich R." <ricrat@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders>
> Subject: Re: FW: Cross-Method EP
> X-To: RealAligators <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
> TTC List <ttc-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Greetings Kevin and other fellow RT'ers!
>
> Allow me my usual disclaimer to the SnP market: I DON'T TRADE NOR FOLLOW
> THE STANDARDLY POOR MARKET. Thanks.
>
> As for the cycle work I did back sometime ago (I did?), it must have
> been prompted by some post or request that made me even look at the
> beast. I have a tendency to analyze and then forget about it if it isn't
> part of my normal day to day affair. I wish I can to this but...wait! I
> think there is something that I can add to this. :)
>
> I TRULY hope that come the end of this month, you all profit greatly by
> some action in the SnP. Yet, for one thing, 7/28, 29, 30 is quite a
> window to trade the Snp market by. Why? For one, a margin of one day
> must be alloted for skewing due to unknown reasons. Therefore, you end
> up with 7/25,28,29,30,31! Yikes! The whole bloody week.
>
> Another factor that we all must consider is that two cycles that come
> together do not necessarily make a SUPERCYCLE. When two cycles hit the
> same day, they may be 0 degrees in phase or 180 out of phase. The cycle
> with the biggest muscles wins and you get MINIBLIP in the direction of
> the stronger one. This is due to their 'cancelling' each other. If you
> know the PHASE of these two cycles, rather than the 'day count', you can
> discern this. Otherwise, it is a toss of the coin, 50/50. We already
> know that the two cycles will not be anything else but 0 or 180 degrees
> from each other because otherwise they would land on different days.
>
> Now, I'm going to throw an interesting bone in the mix.
>
> I wrote a program a few months back, no its not the FDATES program, and
> the name will remain anonymous. Anyway, I pulled down the market menu,
> and selected S&P500 near the bottom of the list (kind of how I
> prioritized them I gather. :). When I selected it, guess what it told
> me?
>
> 7/29/97 is a cycle day. I usually include these with the Fdates Report
> for extra midnight reading but they serve an interesting purpose.
>
> The program usually assists in determining whether we will have a TOP or
> a BOTTOM at times. Now, here is what it says. On this cycle day, we are
> to expect a BOTTOM. It was correct the last two times so it might be
> correct again, who knows. <g>
>
> Please understand what a bottom is. Don't take this wrong, I know you
> all know, but let's clarify with this .... program. The market can go up
> up up and then go down one day below the previous day or so or many
> previous days. It just must be a lower low and high. I hate that as well
> as you, but wanted to warn you. However, it is usually pretty good. If
> it was any better, I'd throw out Fdates. :)
>
> This is food for thought. I am presenting the pros and cons. If your
> cycles are in phase, you should get a nice bottom formed. If they are
> not, you get a blip on the screen. I now leave this subject in your
> hands. Either way, it appears as a day to go long if it is truly a
> bottom.
>
> cheers!
> :)
> rick
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Kevin McGrath wrote:
> >
> > ----------
> > From: Kevin McGrath[SMTP:kevinm@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > Sent: Thursday, June 26, 1997 1:58 PM
> > To: RealTraders Discussion Group
> > Subject: Cross-Method EP
> >
> > A long time ago, Rick Ratchford posted a theory that the SP-500 was working
> > on static cycles of 14 and 24 trading day durations. The original date in his post as the start point for these cycles was 11/26/96. By my own Nature's Pulse method (which almost always is differen> > 07/30/97 area. Nature's Pulse Newsletter has 07/2
8/97 as an EP. The first
> > intersection of Rick's 2 cycles since 11/26/97 is 07/29/97.
> > I like it when different methods come to a somewhat common conclusion.
> > Let's look for a money making opportunity at the end of July.
> >
> > I also like the post July 4th area (07/07, 07/08,07/09) as producing a opportunity to trade 'em up.
> >
> > That was a long post for me. I better get back in the woods now.
> >
> > Kevin
> >
> > Rick - Here was the original post. You must have missed it because you're one of the three people I mentioned! For me personally, I have time areas for both equity and bond markets.
> >
> > Kevin
>
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