|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Greetings Kevin and other fellow RT'ers!
Allow me my usual disclaimer to the SnP market: I DON'T TRADE NOR FOLLOW
THE STANDARDLY POOR MARKET. Thanks.
As for the cycle work I did back sometime ago (I did?), it must have
been prompted by some post or request that made me even look at the
beast. I have a tendency to analyze and then forget about it if it isn't
part of my normal day to day affair. I wish I can to this but...wait! I
think there is something that I can add to this. :)
I TRULY hope that come the end of this month, you all profit greatly by
some action in the SnP. Yet, for one thing, 7/28, 29, 30 is quite a
window to trade the Snp market by. Why? For one, a margin of one day
must be alloted for skewing due to unknown reasons. Therefore, you end
up with 7/25,28,29,30,31! Yikes! The whole bloody week.
Another factor that we all must consider is that two cycles that come
together do not necessarily make a SUPERCYCLE. When two cycles hit the
same day, they may be 0 degrees in phase or 180 out of phase. The cycle
with the biggest muscles wins and you get MINIBLIP in the direction of
the stronger one. This is due to their 'cancelling' each other. If you
know the PHASE of these two cycles, rather than the 'day count', you can
discern this. Otherwise, it is a toss of the coin, 50/50. We already
know that the two cycles will not be anything else but 0 or 180 degrees
from each other because otherwise they would land on different days.
Now, I'm going to throw an interesting bone in the mix.
I wrote a program a few months back, no its not the FDATES program, and
the name will remain anonymous. Anyway, I pulled down the market menu,
and selected S&P500 near the bottom of the list (kind of how I
prioritized them I gather. :). When I selected it, guess what it told
me?
7/29/97 is a cycle day. I usually include these with the Fdates Report
for extra midnight reading but they serve an interesting purpose.
The program usually assists in determining whether we will have a TOP or
a BOTTOM at times. Now, here is what it says. On this cycle day, we are
to expect a BOTTOM. It was correct the last two times so it might be
correct again, who knows. <g>
Please understand what a bottom is. Don't take this wrong, I know you
all know, but let's clarify with this .... program. The market can go up
up up and then go down one day below the previous day or so or many
previous days. It just must be a lower low and high. I hate that as well
as you, but wanted to warn you. However, it is usually pretty good. If
it was any better, I'd throw out Fdates. :)
This is food for thought. I am presenting the pros and cons. If your
cycles are in phase, you should get a nice bottom formed. If they are
not, you get a blip on the screen. I now leave this subject in your
hands. Either way, it appears as a day to go long if it is truly a
bottom.
cheers!
:)
rick
Kevin McGrath wrote:
>
> ----------
> From: Kevin McGrath[SMTP:kevinm@xxxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Thursday, June 26, 1997 1:58 PM
> To: RealTraders Discussion Group
> Subject: Cross-Method EP
>
> A long time ago, Rick Ratchford posted a theory that the SP-500 was working
> on static cycles of 14 and 24 trading day durations. The original date in his post as the start point for these cycles was 11/26/96. By my own Nature's Pulse method (which almost always is different fron Eddie's) has an EP for the
> 07/30/97 area. Nature's Pulse Newsletter has 07/28/97 as an EP. The first
> intersection of Rick's 2 cycles since 11/26/97 is 07/29/97.
> I like it when different methods come to a somewhat common conclusion.
> Let's look for a money making opportunity at the end of July.
>
> I also like the post July 4th area (07/07, 07/08,07/09) as producing a opportunity to trade 'em up.
>
> That was a long post for me. I better get back in the woods now.
>
> Kevin
>
> Rick - Here was the original post. You must have missed it because you're one of the three people I mentioned! For me personally, I have time areas for both equity and bond markets.
>
> Kevin
--
*************************************************
http://FSoftPublishing.com
*************************************************
|