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> Interesting point Ron,
>
> If you look at the XAU index(which usually preceedes Gold)
> you will find a potential inverted Head&Shoulder forming.
> Break out point 97,63. Close Fri 95.15
>
> BUT if you look att On Balance Volume for XAU we have a completed
> Inverted H&S (July 8-July25), which indicates that the XAU H&S
> WILL break.
> Further imlying such a move is the positive divegence between
> OBV and Price in XAU
>
> If XAU does break, the potential is 110.40
>
> Supporting such a move is also the position of Dec Gold which looks
> to be in an impuls move. A five wave rise with wave 3 =1.382*wave 1.
> A break above 334.3 confirm such an impulse move.
>
> Thus we have two points to watch: 334.3 in Dec Gold
> and
> 95.15 in the XAU.
>
> IF the potential 110.4 above is achieved it it has further implications,
> and in my opinion could be the start of severe correction to the down
> move from Feb 96. Since it will break a falling wedge upside
> with a potential of 122.
>
> Further supporting the case, is the statistical fact that of ALLl the
> tops/bottoms made in a 12% swingchart since 1984 July has had
> most trend chages of all months.
>
> Not to forget that the bottom we are now looking at was one
> trading day away from July 4 = Earth aphellion which also
> often conincides with important trendchanges. This year even
> more important since we also have a New Moon and
> Venus in Oosition to Uranus (which according to Ray
> Merriman's book "The Gold Book" (1976-1982)have a 87.5%
> chance of being a bottom.
>
> Not to forget that July 5 (according to Supertrader's Almanac)
> was aniversary to important T/C in 1980 and 1989.
>
> So whatever Intel55@xxxxxxx is trying to communicate<g>,
> I wouldn't be surprised if we have an important upmove soon.
>
> Provided 334.3 Dec gold and/or 95.15 XAU breaks of course.
>
> regards
> stig
>
>
>
> ----------
> > Fra: R.Griess <greaser@xxxxxxx>
> > Til: RealTraders Discussion Group <realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> > Emne: Re: Commodities-Gold
> > Dato: Saturday, July 26, 1997 3:07 PM
> >
> > The CFTC web page: http://www.cftc.gov has all the data on the
> committment
> > of traders for all futures contracts back to 1986.
> >
> > The recent discussion on gold caused me to dig out the numbers to see
if
> > there was anything in them that could suggest the longer term trend of
>> the
> > price of gold.
> >
> > I would suggest that looking at the net position (longs minus shorts)
of
>> the
> > non-commercials seems to overlay on the price of gold very nicely,
> > especially at the extremes. The current net short of the
non-commercials
> >is
> > at a record high (1986-97) as of the latest reporting period (July 15).
> > Those trading gold may want to watch for a reversal in this figure as
an
> > indicator that the trend of the price of gold is ready to reverse
>> direction.
> >
> >
> > Ron
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