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The CFTC web page: http://www.cftc.gov has all the data on the committment
of traders for all futures contracts back to 1986.
The recent discussion on gold caused me to dig out the numbers to see if
there was anything in them that could suggest the longer term trend of the
price of gold.
I would suggest that looking at the net position (longs minus shorts) of the
non-commercials seems to overlay on the price of gold very nicely,
especially at the extremes. The current net short of the non-commercials is
at a record high (1986-97) as of the latest reporting period (July 15).
Those trading gold may want to watch for a reversal in this figure as an
indicator that the trend of the price of gold is ready to reverse direction.
Ron
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