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JW: I'm not sure why this thread is even mentioned unless some people who
have never heard of him suddenly found an M.C. to announce that the sky is
falling.
Prechter is one of the first newsletters I started reading back in 1980.
At that time he was certain a depression had started in 1982. I have read his
3 books and have record of 12 years of his newsletter (most of the letters I
finally pitched).
Precther did a great job of changing his tune within days after the famous
1982 took off and said that his 1978 prediction of a 5+ year massive Bull
market had begun. For 5 years he was sensational. And for 5 years after he
pronounced the 1980's Bull dead in 10-87 he held on to the Elliott Wave
chimerical vision of a 1930's depression as having begun. He still maintains
that belief and his own personal mania. As I have said for 7 years - someday
he may be right, but by then he will no longer deserve any credit ; because
someday just about everyone will be right, but WHEN ?
Prechter comes out of hiding every 2 or 3 years now and sticks his neck out
again in public. The most recent bold call was last year when were testing
5500 DOW and he said we had hit the final long term trend line resistance and
the end would soon come.
Hearing of him you would think him quite egotistical, but he is not. He is
not bombastic, but quiet mannered and very intelligent. I too feel that
someday we could have a 80 to 90% correction toward 1000 to 2000 DOW (that
extra 600 points or a few % is WAY <grin> too much) , but I'm not even close
to venturing a guess as to when such a depression will occur.
SO Precther has written books and his beguiling mania forecasts are as old
as the sun(he has made the same arguments for 10 years), and the subscriber
base boasted to be in the thousands I'm pretty sure has been in a major
extended 5th wave decline most likely. It used to be near 15,000. My guess
is that his base is well under 4K today.
But he sure is persistent -- You have to give him that !
Kurt
Sunnen@xxxxxxx
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From: owner-realtraders@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx on behalf of JW
Sent: Friday, July 25, 1997 7:14 PM
To: RealTraders Discussion Group
Subject: Mkt - Dow 400
Prechter goes for the gold <bg>...
Dow 400? One analyst thinks so
Sure, a 95% correction is way too extreme to take
seriously, but the rationale behind it -- that we're in a
manic market -- is food for thought
Among the handful of stubborn contrarians in this raging
bull market, one stands out for the sheer boldness of his
projection: Dow 400.
in: A 95% drop that would set the clock back to 1955.
Sound kooky? You bet. But Robert Prechter, the market
analyst behind the doomsday scenario, makes some
provocative points on his way down to Dow 400.
But before we get into wether we're in a market mania
now, it is worth noting that Prechter is not a maniac. His
newsletter, The Elliott Wave Theorist, ($233 per year;
twelve monthly issues plus several special reports;
www.elliottwave.com/index.htm), boasts thousands of
subscribers. Prechter is also the author of a book , "At the
Crest of the Tidal Wave."
Like his book, Prechter's newsletter examines the
markets by applying the principles of "Elliott Wave"
theory, developed by an accountant named Ralph Elliott,
who lived until 1948. Elliott Wave theory is a form of
technical analysis that says the market is characterized
by a limited number of patterns that repeat over time
periods as short as minutes and as long as decades and
even centuries.
The upshot of Prechter's gloomy analysis: The markets
have reached an apex in a century-long wave, and are now
poised for a correction that will wipe out virtually all
their gains of the past several decades. Sound far
fetched? Join the crowd.
Note: To join the discussion about this column, visit
Money Online's Briefing Room on the web at
http://cgi.pathfinder.com/cgi-bin/boards/read/267/2
..........snip.....
JW
abprosys@xxxxxxx
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