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Kurt,
> Below I show part of Jeff's post. You Bullish sentiment is the highest ever
> in your surveys. You hint this begins to make you Bearish. Do you have some
> thresholds say above 58% Bulls and under 40 % Bulls that correlate with tops &
> bottoms in the past. I think we all need more analysis of your data (unless
> it is too nascent still) to understand its potential value.
> So please elaborate if you can so we can garner some value to your kind RT
> contributions without viewing your website if possible.
Did I hint I was bearish? I was trying to imply that I was
bullish!<g>
As you suspected, we are just starting to build our data base. We
have only been running the "Guess the Dow" survey for about 10 weeks.
Obviously, that is far to short a time to judge what type of levels
correlate with tops and bottoms. But even at this point I think there
is interesting info. This week the numbers were not changed much from
last week, so it was tough to judge much from the data. But there
have been some weeks that gave very good clues as to what to expect
for the next week.
For instance, the survey which ended 6/29 showed a strong shift
towards bearishness from the previous week. Although the bulls still
had a majority at 42% to 39%, the bears had jumped up 17%. These
results came after a choppy week that closed down just a bit for the
week. This had us looking for a rally the next week, which was
exactly what happened as the market exploded up 3.5%. Of course not
many of our results are this clear cut. But things should only get
better as we build up more data.
Perhaps the most exciting thing about Guess the Dow is the immediacy.
Most sentiment surveys I have seen are lagged quite a bit. This one
is reported almost immediately. We are planning a mail list in the
near future which will distribute the data to mail list subscribers,
which should make things even more timely. In the meantime, stop by
the site and put in your guess for next week.
good trading,
Jeff
mailto:jwalker@xxxxxxxxxxx
http://www.lowrisk.com
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