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Ross,
Since I was the one who mentioned the "cow hide" :) I'll try to
respond:
I didn't mean to say we are near a top, in either price or time. Who
knows how high or how long we can go? All I was trying to point out:
1) This market is reaching historical heights in terms of its advance.
That's not to say that it can't go past the moon and on towards Mars.
:) But in doing so it will be moving into a rare air never seen by
stock markets in the past. Check out Trader Vic's books; he goes
extensively into the statistics of market life expectancy.
2) When the bull finally does end, be it in 1997, 2000, or 2010, it will
end in bloody carnage. What goes straight up comes straight down. How
*far* down is open to question, but again, you can look at historical
bear markets. Trader Vic does this in his second book and gives all the
data on what he classifies as the 25 bear markets since the DJIA began.
The average bear lost 31.56% (that's my calculation from his data). Can
John Q. Public do what he says he's gonna do, which is remain invested
for the "long term" when he sees 30% whacked off of his portfolio's
value in just a week or two? Personally, I doubt it. People say they
won't panic, but panic is not something that is rational. There are a
great deal of people who have never even seen a bear market. How can
they know how they'll react?
3) The question is, IMO, is the risk worth it?
Anyway, I'm a daytrader, so it's somewhat beside the point for me
(unless you consider that if things get really bad they may try to close
down the futures markets as a scapegoat).
Chris
Kovacs, Ross R wrote:
> The recent highs in the stock market have unleashed a torrent of
> pessimism from RT members. Thank you for your comments: you've given
>
> me an extra dose of courage to continue hugging this bull market in
> stocks.
>
> Yes, I know the bull will end some day. And I don't believe we've
> entered "a new era". But the postings on RT about "bears in cow hide,
>
> etc." leave out vital pieces of information.
> <snip>
>
> HRoss
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