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The recent highs in the stock market have unleashed a torrent of
pessimism from RT members. Thank you for your comments: you've given
me an extra dose of courage to continue hugging this bull market in
stocks.
Yes, I know the bull will end some day. And I don't believe we've
entered "a new era". But the postings on RT about "bears in cow hide,
etc." leave out vital pieces of information.
1. When will the bull market end? Like the proverbial stopped clock,
I suspect that most of these pessimistic traders will only be right
twice a day (in this case, right when the bull is finally over, but
they will have missed massive profits from an early exit). Until that
time comes, an immense amount of money is being left on the table by
anyone who isn't fully invested and an immense amount of anxiety is
being covered with braggadocia claiming to know that the bull will end
and the messenger knew it all along. OR, am I being naïve about RT
members. Do their writings match their actual investments? Anyway,
this first question is totally ignored by most postings (unless you're
a cycle head, or the rare Gann trader). However, I've yet to meet a
cycle head that really believes in the accuracy of calling market
tops; market bottoms seem to be their true forte.
2. What price will the stock market top at? Fibonacci heads and some
others keep predicting this price, and then the market blasts through
their last prediction. Again, I find these predictions unconvincing
due to their track record.
What do I think will be helpful to RT members? (if you care?) I
trade futures, including financials. Larry Williams long ago made an
insightful comment on all massive bull or bear markets: they will
almost always exceed your wildest expectations by 30% or more.
Two keys:
1. Hold on tight like riding a roller coaster to handle your emotions
(stay fully invested).
2. WAIT until the market signals that it HAS topped. One easy
indicator is lower highs and lower lows with a break in a resistance
level. Then pull the trigger FAST. If wrong, admit the mistake and
re-enter immediately.
This is the yin and yang of any bull or bear. Stay calm and unmoving
until the market says MOVE FAST. Do this and you will capture 80% to
90% of this massive move. Even the crash of '87 was indicated by #2
above.
This why I am certain that most RT members have under performed a buy
and hold strategy. But thanks to your pessimism, I will sleep more
soundly tonight.
HRoss
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