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invstr@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
> At 06:23 PM 7/22/97 -0400, Christopher McMurry wrote:
> >You've all heard of the cow that jumped over the moon. Now, it seems,
> >her husband the bull has gone after her to make sure she's not gettin'
> >into some hanky panky with any little green men.
> >
> >So the question is, when will he catch her and to his horror find that
> >his little milk maid is actually a grizzly bear in cow's clothing?
> >
> >I looked at some numbers that I thought the list might find
> >interesting...
> >
> >Price (using the Dow Jones Industrial Average)
> >-------
> >The 1921 - 1929 bull went from a closing low of 63.90 to a closing high
> >of 381.17. This is an advance of 495%.
> >
> >If we multiply the 1987 crash low (on a close basis) by 4.95, what do we
> >get?
> >
> >1738.74 x 4.95 = 8607
> >
> >If Little Miss Cow Bear turns out to be the same distance over the moon
> >as she was in the '20s, then our Big Bad Bull is about to catch her.
> >
>
> Dear Chris,
>
> As I've mentioned in previous postings, simply comparing numbers (which
> actually are arbitrary, since you could easily pick a time slot before the
> '87 crash) is useless. What was the cause of the crash of '29? The cause
> is pretty well understood: The Federal Reserve Bank reigned in over a third
> of the credit it had easily provided in the previous 10 years, in a short
> time frame- calling loans etc. In other words, the stock market was rising
> at a relatively normal pace, when cash was pulled out from underneath it.
>
> The market is driven currently by boomers using it like a savings bank.
> The mutual funds are really the driving force behind the DOW's rise. Very
> different financial circumstances. Who's to say that a national panic
> won't set in? Unlikely though.
>
> Dan
Dan,
Seems I've heard this song before. So, how about the panic of 1873
which led to 23 years of prolonged depression? Was that the Fed?
And then there was the big 1854? top. And the 1837 bank panic which
almost bourght down the entire financial system. and so on and so on.
And before that there was the South Seas Bubble, the Mississippi Bubble,
and the Tulip Bulb Bubble. Where was the Fed during those panics?
Or have we truly enterd a permanent plateau of prosperity as was
declared
in 1928-29 just before the crash? Seems I've heard this song before.
Singingly,
Norman
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