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> Prechter is a loon. He is as nutty as they come. Seems real normal in person,
> but his market views are as nutty as they come. He used to say Dow 400
> soooooonnn, but hahah not even close , he is a nut case and should be laughed
> at all the way home. His stupid charts of "waves" going back to hundreds of
> years ago are riduculous.....are those records accurate..hahaha if you think
> yes. Do they correlate with today's environment....not a chance..... nutty
> nutty guy....has been wrong wrong wrong for years and years......got lucky
> once and it made him a start and then poof away with the faires he goes.
> Middle of next century?? He has not a clue...........
> Jim
I find it interesting that his correct call which basically nailed the
market from 1982-1987 or 1990 is considered 'lucky', and his incorrect
analysis since 1990 proves he belongs with the "fairies". I doubt that
thesis would stand up to scientific scrutiny. While his wave
interpretation and creating waves from hundreds of years ago is
certainly questionable, I doubt that it makes him overly nutty or a
loon. He is simply a market forecaster who is not mainstream. He also
has called for things that people do not want to hear. The spite with
which he is judged, I believe, is spawned from these two things. His
method of analysis and his predictions are threatening to people and to
mainstream thought. We want him to be wrong. We want his correct
predictions to be lucky. We want to believe that blindly placing our
money into the stock market will insure the education of our children
and our own independent wealth. He has made mistakes in his counts, and
his analysis methods have betrayed him at times. Other than someone who
never enters the arena, I doubt anyone could say that hasn't happened to
them many times as well. We have all seen the 'perfect' set up go
awry. (I believe it is at this point that one's success as a trader is
made or broken. Anyone can do well when everything goes as planned.
When you have a string of losses or a limit open against you, your
resolve is tested, and your fate as a trader will be determined during
these tests. Prechter's main problem is poor 'money management', holding
on to a loser, that once seemed so good, for too long. I hardly think
he is the only one who has ever done that. He has forgotten the first
maxim of trading--Cut your losses short.)
In my opinion Prechter's mistake has been in his application of the EW.
He has tried to use it to explain too much and predict too much rather
that as a useful tool. I think he has based too much on his very long
term, 200 year, count which has some questionable information. On a
shorter, monthly and weekly basis, the market has conformed fairly well
to EW over the past four years. Granted there have been several fives
that have extended, but basically using EW one could have stayed on the
right side of the market for a good majority of the time.
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