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Further on the subject of commodity seasonals:
1) Frank Taucher's Supertrader's Almanac is another source of seasonal
commodity trades, and reasonably priced at about $100 / 6 months. It also
includes a wide variety of other useful info, some of which has been
mentioned here from time to time.
2) I was told by a Chicago-based broker that the Moore Research seasonals are
in such common use that floor traders carry the books around and trade
against a lot of the trades. In light of this, it was suggested to me that
it may be a good idea to wait until a Moore Research seasonal trade has hit
its historical max drawdown before entering. I cannot say this to be a fact;
just something else to consider.
3) I concur (strongly) with previous suggestions that there are other market
factors that can often swamp (overpower) seasonal influences. Never enter a
trade just because it's "supposed" to go up or down due to seasonality--while
intuitively appealing, 'taint neccessarily so. Let the market tell you if a
seasonal is indeed a strong/controlling influence this time--the history's
interesting, but you can't trade it.
Regards,
Walter Baker
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