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Good info on the floor using the Moore reports. You have to believe
the floor has everything we have as outsiders and the edge of being in
the pit. They're going to 'do their thing' and try to pick off as many
people as possible. I only use the Moore data as background
information and I completely agree that you can just trade it blind.
You have to have other ways of lowering your risk of entry. Lately it
also seems you have to have a plan for protecting against the 'other market
factors' that seem to be blowing the seasonals out of profile.
Phil
WLBaker628@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
> Further on the subject of commodity seasonals:
>
> 1) Frank Taucher's Supertrader's Almanac is another source of seasonal
> commodity trades, and reasonably priced at about $100 / 6 months. It also
> includes a wide variety of other useful info, some of which has been
> mentioned here from time to time.
>
> 2) I was told by a Chicago-based broker that the Moore Research seasonals are
> in such common use that floor traders carry the books around and trade
> against a lot of the trades. In light of this, it was suggested to me that
> it may be a good idea to wait until a Moore Research seasonal trade has hit
> its historical max drawdown before entering. I cannot say this to be a fact;
> just something else to consider.
>
> 3) I concur (strongly) with previous suggestions that there are other market
> factors that can often swamp (overpower) seasonal influences. Never enter a
> trade just because it's "supposed" to go up or down due to seasonality--while
> intuitively appealing, 'taint neccessarily so. Let the market tell you if a
> seasonal is indeed a strong/controlling influence this time--the history's
> interesting, but you can't trade it.
>
> Regards,
>
> Walter Baker
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