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Hello IVT,
Thursday, January 11, 2007, 5:51:10 AM, you wrote:
> and after all is it (JMA) useful for anything?
Personally I do not believe so. I have tested JMA in every conceivable
configuration from simple bar smoothing to complex internal indicator
machinations using both the TS version and the dll and I can honestly say
that I have been unable to prove any real advantage whatsoever, quite the
reverse in many cases. Raw bar data is the most responsive as you state
below and in combination with simple indicators has proven (to me at any
rate) to be a much more robust solution overall. The few occasions that JMA
has tested well were rare enough to qualify as random luck, luck that I was
unable to repeat and believe me I tried.
In fact when I replaced my motherboard a few months back I never bothered to
fax the receipt to Jurik to re-enable any of my Jurik products (I have 4)
because (a) I am lazy; (b) I didn't like Norman Smith's "you are trying to
steal our software" attitude; and (c) I consider them to be an over-hyped
waste of time anyway. And as a bonus I don't get those PitA random JMART()
errors any more, which is great.
I might add that my testing of JMA and the other Jurik products has covered
probably 70+ futures markets with a multitude of systems and portfolio
combinations with data ranging from the early 1970's (in some cases) right
through to the current day (in varying test lengths from 5 to 20 years) and
the results have been evaluated with metrics ranging from the simple (profit
factor, WL Avg, etc.) to the more complex (weighted geometric mean,
distribution stats and so on) so when I say that I have tested these
products I do mean "seriously tested over several years" and not just "had a
casual glance this morning".
JMA sure looks great (that was why I bought it in the first place) but in
the bigger scheme of things it does not pan out. My testing has shown that
most "smoothers" that look good usually die in the a** likewise. Arguments
about the lag or overshoot characteristics seem to be purely academic to me
- my only question is "what are the test results?".
> raw price is a better input than what JMA computes.
See para 1 above.
> JMA will produce a misterious and unknown spectrum of phase shifts
Exactly. A small and potentially dangerous 'black box' IMHO.
--
Warm regards,
Roscoe mail to: Roscoe@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx
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