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Even the VERY BEST system will get run over by forces more numerous and
perhaps more powerful than can be programmed into that system OR meet the
eye.
For Instance:
Take a dominant cycle high or low point, forecast in measured 'cycle time'
to occur at a future date (i.e., connect previous lows/highs, then project
out... If the market has been trading sideways, just "meandering" just
before this occurs, then "takes off like a rocket"- most
math/stat/probability "systems" are going to signal you to exit or enter
prematurely. Every one of us that have been around even for a short period
of time have witnessed this.
Even then, "phase" of cycles are known to "shift". This is just ONE factor
that NO-Body can program into ANY system.
In my life experiences, having a good math/stat/probability program,
adhering to its rules, but more importantly, diversifying its use among as
MANY instruments as you can keep track of helps alot. On a down day in the
emini, your model is going to have you both long and short on many
instruments, helping to remain more delta neutral.
The challenge and fun is being able to recognize the market's metamorphosis
yet is secondary to making $$.
Marc Miller
----- Original Message -----
From: "Bilo Selhi" <biloselhi@xxxxxxxxxxx>
To: "Infinity Brokerage" <jeffg@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>; "'Ron Hudson'"
<ron@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>; <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2004 11:16 AM
Subject: Re: e-mini day trading systems
> every day is a new day...
> every day a new sucker is born...
> every trade is a new trade ...
> every day there is new system...
> every day is new line of code...
> every day brings a new idea...
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> but Duke&Duke always makes the commission !
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> bilo.
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> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Infinity Brokerage
> To: 'Ron Hudson' ; omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> Sent: Tuesday, February 03, 2004 1:58 PM
> Subject: RE: e-mini day trading systems
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> Every trader needs to think systematically and understand how past price
> movement may influence future prices. As you said, there is probably not a
> system that will always work.
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> This is why Tom Skilling goes to work everyday and why I go to work
> everyday. Everyday is a new day.
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> J Gil
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