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RE: FW: Random walk



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Yaba daba do! Fred. If you can't come up with a definition for the proof
just say so.

Brent



> If you doubt it, just tell me what the exact price of the Dow will be 5
days from today at 9:00est...

This kind of absurd comment always pops up. It proves squat.
Is the outcome at a roulette wheel predictable from spin to spin? No. OTOH,
is the composite outcome random, or does it favor the house?

OK, Buzy Schwartz (publicly) made about 1000%+/-/year for about ten years
against worst drawdowns of about 3%/month... and (Vince) nearly all in very
short term trades. The random walkers say: "If you dig enough holes to make
swimming pools sometimes you'll strike gold by (random) luck.... Almost
every day, every week, every month for ten years Schwartz "got lucky" and
found gold where ever he dug a hole.

> Could the truth be that the markets are both random and non-random? I
guess that you didn't think of that.

DOH! Brilliant Homer! This is what trading is all about: knowing the
difference between a high and low probability
trading situation and acting on them in a consistent fashion.

Willy