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> If you doubt it, just tell me what the exact price of the Dow will be 5 days from today at 9:00est...
This kind of absurd comment always pops up. It proves squat.
Is the outcome at a roulette wheel predictable from spin to spin? No. OTOH, is the composite outcome random, or does it favor the house?
OK, Buzy Schwartz (publicly) made about 1000%+/-/year for about ten years against worst drawdowns of about 3%/month... and (Vince) nearly all in very short term trades. The random walkers say: "If you dig enough holes to make swimming pools sometimes you'll strike gold by (random) luck.... Almost every day, every week, every month for ten years Schwartz "got lucky" and found gold where ever he dug a hole.
> Could the truth be that the markets are both random and non-random? I guess that you didn't think of that.
DOH! Brilliant Homer! This is what trading is all about: knowing the difference between a high and low probability
trading situation and acting on them in a consistent fashion.
Willy
On Fri, 10 Jan 2003 12:13:41 -0700
"Brent" <brente@xxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> Hey, I've got a random trade generator built right into my software. It's
> about as successful as all other trader and trading systems are. Where is
> the 100% proof of non-random markets, or what would prove that they are
> non-random?
>
> Oh, and last I heard anyone on this list has as much right to say what they
> want, as you do.
>
> I know that randomness can be proven. Can non-randomness be proven?
>
> If you doubt it, just tell me what the exact price of the Dow will be 5 days
> from today at 9:00est.
>
> Could the truth be that the markets are both random and non-random? I guess
> that you didn't think of that.
>
> On a cloudy day you can see shapes in the clouds, like ships, faces, flying
> saucers, etc. What ever you can imagine, and like many others you can read
> tea leaves, or see patterns on charts but until you can define your proof
> you can prove nothing.
>
> Brent
>
>
>
>
>
> re: Could the random walk people please take a long walk elsewhere. I've
> never known a random walker that could make money in the market.
> They are full of intellectual BS and no show for the money. Take it
> elsewhere. If you know that little about the market then find another
> trade (pun intended). If you don't see market patterns then find
> something else to do.
>
> Jimmy
>
>
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