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Gentlemen,
This subject, "how much work is required for success" brings up for me a
statement made by one of the original "Super-Traders" in the book published
around 10 years ago; I believe it was Ed Seykota, an MIT graduate who wandered
off into professional trading several decades ago, and who took over Tick Data
Services in the 90s. Anyway, his statement: "Everybody gets from the market
exactly what they want."
Similar to his belief, what I have come to believe is that the market is a
remarkable mirror, reflecting back your image to you as seen with your own
eyes. If you believe that "In order to be successful, you must devote 50-70
hours to the market", then you will devote 50-70 hours to the market and you
will find some way to "see" success reflected back to you from the market. The
problem is that it is a self-fulfilling prophesy --- you will attribute your
success to "That is what the market requires of me for success." All this
proves is that "You've got to believe something in order to see it." Chances
are that if you changed your belief to "I can be successful in the market by
devoting only 10-20 hours to the market," and if you committed yourself to that
belief, you would find a way to see success reflected back to you by devoting
only 10-20 hours, and then you would attribute your success, just as with the
prior example, to "That is what the market requires of me for success," proving
once again that "If you believe it, you will find a way to see it."
In my opinion, technical trading works, not so much because of anything magical
about it, but because its adherents believe in and have become dedicated to
technical analysis, and they will devote themselves long enough and hard enough
such that eventually they will find something technical that will produce what
to them is "success," giving them justification for their original belief
"technical trading works." Ditto for discretionary trading. Ditto for Elliott,
Gann, sunspots, moonbeams, whatever. To me, the "beauty" of the market is that
it is so amorphous, so ambiguous, so absent of any obvious structure, pattern,
or "rules" that it allows everybody to bring his own beliefs about "how the
market works" to the table, play them out, and find subjective success ---
cumulatively providing substantial support for Seykota's original belief:
"Everybody gets from the market exactly what they want."
As in baseball, "If you build it, they will come."
Sincerely,
Richard
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