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Correct you are Mike.....the original analogy is flawed because the taxi cab
driver had a known POSITIVE EXPECTATION for his actions and endeavor.
That is why all he has to do to make more money is take to have more
OPPORTUNITIES (hit the road every day).
Traders using approaches or systems not well tested or researched may be
using something that has a NEGATIVE EXPECTATION over a long period of time.
In that situation, more OPPORTUNITIES (Trades) = more rapid losses which
leads to the ever-familiar-to-some "high risk of ruin".
> -----Original Message-----
> From: MikeSuesserott [mailto:MikeSuesserott@xxxxxxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, November 18, 2001 8:16 AM
> To: TaoOfDow
> Cc: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Profit Taking
>
>
> Hi Richard,
>
> thanks for your insightful posts. Just wondering if the taxi
> analogy should
> not also account for the unavoidable losses. If the taxi driver would have
> to face being mugged by his passengers on a more or less regular
> basis, the
> question arises whether the type of driver quitting earlier would not also
> avoid a lot of muggings!
>
> Regards,
>
> Michael Suesserott
>
>
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