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FWIW, This (Stratfor) is usually a lucid and informative resource for broad
range of topics. Not always objective, but better than most, and lacking
the superficiality of CNN, CNBC, and the networks.
As usual, it is important to draw your own conclusions from various sources.
Usual disclaimers.
NHBob
----- Original Message -----
From: <alert@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
To: <redalert@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, September 13, 2001 8:42 PM
Subject: Global Intelligence Cooperation
> ___________________________________________________________________
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> S T R A T F O R
>
> THE GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE COMPANY
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> http://www.stratfor.com
> ___________________________________________________________________
>
> 13 September 2001
>
> COMPLIMENTARY INTELLIGENCE REPORT - FULL TEXT
> ___________________________________________________________________
>
> **NOTE**
>
> This is a complimentary full-text intelligence report, normally
> reserved for members only. For full-text reports every day and access
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> http://www.stratfor.com/COMPANY/info
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> Global Intelligence Cooperation Comes With Risks
>
> 2355 GMT, 010913
>
> Summary
>
> The United States is now building coalition support for its
> response to Sept. 11 terror attacks. The chief benefit of
> cooperation with the international community will be
> intelligence. The ease with which the terrorists struck
> demonstrates a gaping hole in U.S. intelligence capabilities that
> allies may help to fill. A host of nations have jumped at the
> chance to build cooperation with the United States, but such
> collaboration comes with a price.
>
> Analysis
>
> U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell said Sept. 13 that the
> United States would seek to build a coalition response to terror
> attacks in Washington, D.C., and New York City. A host of
> countries -- including China, India, Israel, Pakistan, Russia and
> Saudi Arabia -- have offered to help the United States track down
> those responsible.
>
> The offers come when the United States has dire need for
> intelligence on the activities, operations, networks and funding
> of foreign terrorist organizations based in Africa, the Middle
> East and central and southeast Asia. But global counterterrorism
> cooperation among a group of nations could be a catch-22 for the
> United States. Other nations will seek to shape the United
> States' coming war against terrorism to suit their own interests.
>
> For Washington, this presents a strategic dilemma. Cooperation is
> necessary and invaluable, but the benefits must be weighed
> against the motivations of the many actors involved. This will
> hamper counterterrorism efforts. The United States is also
> inclined to act unilaterally. Dependence upon foreign sources for
> intelligence would make this impossible. But the United States
> cannot decline all foreign support. The radical Islamic groups
> most likely involved -- although organized into a loose network -
> - act in concert. Fighting them will require cooperation.
>
> Washington needs the intelligence capabilities of other nations.
> For example, India, Israel and Russia can provide significant
> human intelligence sources and foreign language skills. Both are
> vital to exposing the terrorist network involved in the recent
> attacks. Other nations can also provide intelligence on terrorism
> networks within their own countries, as well as the groups'
> sources of funding, likely sponsors, and intelligence-gathering
> and other capabilities.
>
> Many of these nations have a wealth of information on
> counterterrorism methodology and decades of experience fighting
> militant groups. These countries and others -- especially
> cooperative moderate Arab nations -- can help U.S. intelligence
> officials penetrate countries where spying is normally difficult.
>
> From a logistical and technical perspective, such cooperation
> could give Washington a competitive advantage for a war in which
> intelligence will be the most valuable weapon.
>
> But accepting such assistance comes with a price. The trap is
> simple: By pinpointing groups like Palestinians and Chechens,
> nations such as Israel and Russia could seek to manipulate the
> U.S. response in order to combat their own enemies.
>
> Israel immediately offered intelligence and military assistance
> to the United States following the Sept. 11 attacks. Israel is
> eager for the United States to identify a common enemy and to
> gain U.S. support in its own problem with Palestinian militants.
> Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, in conversations with U.S. Secretary
> of State Colin Powell, compared Palestinian Authority leader
> Yasser Arafat to Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden -- the United
> States' prime suspect, Israeli radio reported Sept. 13.
>
> Collaborating with Israel could put the United States in a
> difficult position. Already, the attacks in the United States
> have granted Israel virtual carte blanche in dealing with
> suspected Palestinian militants. Sharing intelligence about
> insurgent groups in the Middle East with Washington will once
> again position Israel as an indispensable U.S. ally, ensuring
> continued support in its war against the Palestinians and
> possibly future conflicts with Arab neighbors.
>
> Many other nations could benefit in the same way. For example,
> India has already offered to help the United States if
> investigators link the Sept. 11 attacks to bin Laden and his
> operations in Pakistan, the Times of India reported Sept. 13.
> India would gladly use U.S. resources to stamp out radical
> Islamic groups in Pakistan as these groups are fighting in
> Kashmir, territory over which India and Pakistan have fought
> three wars.
>
> Similarly, Russia stands to gain from helping America. The
> Russian Federal Security Service has already identified the
> Pakistan-based radical Islamic group Jaamat e-Islami as the
> likely suspect in the suicide hijackings. The group has been tied
> to Chechen rebels and a spate of bombings in Russia in 1999,
> according to ITAR-TASS. Moscow has its own reasons, however, to
> finger a group connected to the Chechens and targeted by India:
> By condemning these groups, the United States will be forced to
> drop its own criticism of Russia's operations in Chechnya.
>
> Other countries can use a global intelligence coalition to their
> own benefit. Even if they are not directly threatened by Islamic
> fundamentalist groups, by sharing intelligence and collaborating
> with the United States in a global war against terrorism, they
> would have a plethora of opportunities to gather intelligence on
> potential rivals or stretch their own military reach.
>
> For instance, the head of the Japanese Defense Agency announced
> Sept. 11 that Japan would fully support the United States and act
> with it to deal with terrorist attacks, The Associated Press
> reported. If Japan can frame its military restructuring as an
> international counterterrorism effort, that would go a long way
> to help Tokyo avoid many problems associated with the legacy of
> its World War II militarism and with domestic and foreign
> opposition.
>
> European countries will seek to strengthen their own
> counterterrorism measures and benefit from American financial
> resources. Though Spain, for instance, is not likely to claim
> that Basque separatists were involved in the World Trade Center
> and Pentagon attacks, cooperation with the United States can
> advance Madrid's efforts to end its problem with separatist
> rebels.
>
> People the world over see the attack on the United States as a
> tragedy. But foreign governments will look to turn it into an
> opportunity to solve many of their own national security
> problems. The United States will accept help to a limited degree
> although ultimately it is more likely to implement policy on a
> unilateral basis. But with a united enemy, a disunited coalition
> puts the United States at a disadvantage not easily overcome.
>
> __________________________________________________________________
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