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Ultimately it comes down to how the individual handles their own
psychology....
if it was all easily quantified 80% of traders would be winners....
still only 2% ever make the big time..why is that so??
"Gentle Ox
Bilo Selhi wrote:
> yeah but the key is how to do quantify fear and greed? ;-)
>
> for a trader who's long fear is "sell" and greed and "no sell"
> for a trader who's short fear is "buy" and greed is "no buy"
> you can quantify "no sell" as synthetic buy and
> "no buy" as as synthetic sell...
> both emotions cause action or no action...
> action no action means what???
> all comes down to "buy" or "sell" one way or the other...
>
> bilo.
> ps. again, a good system is where trader psychology is quantified...
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Thomas Alexander" <alexander_enterprises@xxxxxxxxx>
> To: "Omega List" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Tuesday, June 12, 2001 7:04 PM
> Subject: Systems and Psychology
>
> > I hear a lot here about price distributions, system
> > characteristics and their shifting modalities. On the other
> > hand, doesn't the basic psychology of market participants
> > remain fairly constant over time? Certainly their tools
> > improve but their (our) fear and greed does not change
> > much. I would imagine that as a trader becomes more mature
> > in the market that they enter different levels of
> > psychology till they become "professional." But, there is
> > always a new influx of beginners to take their place, the
> > 80% losers.
> >
> > So, do any of the systems in the Futures magazine top 10
> > list capture that non-shifting psychology or are they all
> > shallow mathematical/predictave price distribution engines?
> > Any "psychology based" systems out there for comparison?
> >
> >
> >
> > rudolf stricker
> > wrote: On Mon, 11 Jun 2001 15:39:21 -0400, you wrote:>-
> > 60% or higher>- 1 to 1 or higher......>the rest of the
> > stats will come from the 60% and 1 to 1...More general, the
> > "rules" above come down to "which criterions to useto
> > select a system", e.g. in a goal function during
> > systemoptimization Over the last years, I ended up with the
> > following:- number of trades/year- profit- number of
> > winning / number of loosing trades- win/ loss ratio- max
> > win- in rate- tail volume of the loss distributionAll these
> > criterios (weighted over time and condensed to
> > onecriterion) turned out to be necessary for me, to select
> > a system whichis profitable _and_ is comfortable for me.mfg
> > rudolf stricker| Disclaimer: The views of this user are
> > strictly his own.
> >
> >
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