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John,
Any sort of analysis that you use will have its share of false signals. The
key is to develop a strategy that has enough correct signals and, at the
same time, a limited amount of risk in the event of a false signal.
You are right in assuming that the bond market has an effect on the stocks
but just when you figure out what that effect is, it changes. 'Same can be
said for crude oil and the dollar. The market never reacts to similar
information in the exact same way as it has in the past.
Isolate a particular signal from within your chart analysis and test it
forward and backward over 50 signals. Determine your ratio of good to false
signals and then look at the drawdown on the winners. These numbers will
give you the basis for further testing and the ultimate creation of a
strategy that works for you.
Sean
> Using charting analysis worksokay but I
> find I get some false signals. I gather the 30 year bond trend and support
> has a direct impact and Fair value as well. I have been told pivot points
> can be a factor. I guess I am looking for anything to assist me
> in tying it
> all together as fast as possible. Any help would be appreciated.
>
> Thanks,
>
> John Bowles.
>
>
>
>
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