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Don't wish to be picky but 50% is not actually a fib number...
----- Original Message -----
From: "hm" <hm@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Thursday, June 22, 2000 4:07 PM
Subject: Re: A Quick Poll
>
> TradeWynne@xxxxxxx wrote:
> >
> > I believe there was a study that found the stock market has spent, over
> more
> > than a hundred year period, about 62% of its history going up, and 38%
> going
> > down.
> >
>
> I have a database of intraday FTSE futures prices from 1992 to date where
> each price swing of more than a certain value is recorded with its
> time/value. Thus I was easily able to compute how much time the market
> spent intraday moving up and down.
>
> The results were:
>
> Year % up % down
> 92 50.6 49.4
> 93 50.4 49.6
> 94 50.0 50.0
> 95 50.6 49.4
> 96 51.8 48.2
> 97 51.0 49.0
> 98 52.0 48.0
> 99 50.0 50.0
> 00 to date 50.0 50.0
>
> Furthermore, my simple breakout system (which has no pre-determined
> directional bias) has recorded almost equal numbers of buy and sell trades
> over the same period.
>
> Not sure what to make of this, except that 50% is as good a Fibo number as
> 62/38.
>
> Hugh
>
>
>
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