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TradeWynne@xxxxxxx wrote:
>
> I believe there was a study that found the stock market has spent, over
more
> than a hundred year period, about 62% of its history going up, and 38%
going
> down.
>
I have a database of intraday FTSE futures prices from 1992 to date where
each price swing of more than a certain value is recorded with its
time/value. Thus I was easily able to compute how much time the market
spent intraday moving up and down.
The results were:
Year % up % down
92 50.6 49.4
93 50.4 49.6
94 50.0 50.0
95 50.6 49.4
96 51.8 48.2
97 51.0 49.0
98 52.0 48.0
99 50.0 50.0
00 to date 50.0 50.0
Furthermore, my simple breakout system (which has no pre-determined
directional bias) has recorded almost equal numbers of buy and sell trades
over the same period.
Not sure what to make of this, except that 50% is as good a Fibo number as
62/38.
Hugh
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