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Dear system experts:
I am using a system during a pair of years, with the following singularity:
Performance Summary: All Trades
Total net profit $ 172100.00 Open position P/L $ 5000.00
Gross profit $ 297650.00 Gross loss $-125550.00
Total # of trades 226 Percent profitable
43%
Number winning trades 98 Number losing trades 128
Largest winning trade $ 16000.00 Largest losing trade $ -4950.00
Average winning trade $ 3037.24 Average losing trade $ -980.86
Ratio avg win/avg loss 3.10 Avg trade(win & loss) $ 761.50
Max consec. winners 5 Max consec. losers 8
Avg # bars in winners 7 Avg # bars in losers 2
Max intraday drawdown $ -13900.00
Profit factor 2.37 Max # contracts held 1
Account size required $ 13900.00 Return on account 1238%
My question is : Is there any inconsistency between the ratio "number of
winning/ losing trades" and the Return on account. In fact, the system
usually "loss" trades, but due to the stop loss mechanism the losses are cut
and the final result sounds good.
The system uses a very short MA conditions to take positions and to generate
a large number of trades. If i take a longer MA to reduce the trades, the
profits are no so good.
Can i say that It is a confident system?
Is there any "stress test" to check the confidence of the methods involved?
A final question. Should i live with trading system that generates a large
ratio of (loss trades/winning trades)? It is a risky system?
Well, many people can tell me : "consider your bottom line man !!!". OK, but
it is sicologically hard to keep a system like this, because i need to
accept some longer periods (1 month) of profits=0 (or <0). (Obviously, It
usually occurs in a choppy market after long bearish/bulish markets)
Thanks any help
hernan.
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