|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
One more thought, I think its also important to realize and understand what
the market is focusing on. For years I kept an intraday matrix with Bonds,
Dollar, CRB, S&P, Crude, DM, Gold and Beans. I would jot down a reading
every 20 or 30 minutes or anytime the bonds made a big intraday move and
then scroll through the charts. There were certainly short periods of time
when the market concentrated intently upon another market (about 90% of my
trading is in the bond market). Those times when you could figure out what
the market was focusing on, you had a significant advantage (usually in the
form of the courage to act). But, it was a lot of work and I have gotten
away from wanting to work quite that hard.
I can remember times (back in the old days when we were all consumed with
inflation fear) that you could put up an intraday chart of wheat or beans
and get great insights into the short term movement of the bonds (higher
wheat or beans = higher CRB = Lower bonds). Understand, that most traders
are like anyone else, they have a compulsion to understand why things
happen (plus, for the desk and prop guys at large firms, the first thing
the boss asks after he comes to check your position is usually ... Why?).
Anyway, if they afraid of inflation, they will focus on the CRB because it
is on their screen, it is actively quoted and they have seen dozens of
other traders watching it. You get enough traders watching the same thing,
you get insight and possibly an edge.
Hope all is well,
Stewart.
At 09:34 AM 5/27/00 -0500, robert.cummings@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
>Were always looking for that elusive lead indicator. The platform on which
>holy grails can be derived. I agree you can't trade this inter market
>stuff. I agree with Stewart certain considerations should be taken under
>advisement. Example would be grain and meat prices. People monitor and
>trade these ratios. I understand what OM is saying here and I agree with
>him. To bad though if one market would lead another by about 5 ,10 or 30
>minutes consistently we could all be rich.
>
>Robert
>
>
>
>
>At 05:37 AM 5/27/00 -0400, editorial@xxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
>>This is why "intermarket technical analysis" is a farce.
>>
>>
>>Good trading,
>>
>>OM
>
>
Stewart Taylor
Taylor Fixed Income Outlook
Voice: 501-219-9774
Fax: 501-228-0963
E-Mail: staylor@xxxxxxx
Web Site: http://www.cei.net/~staylor/
|