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At 10:57 AM 5/21/00 -0500, robert.cummings@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
>I'm the answer man today. To determine the probability of a trade you have
>to identify the trade pattern. Example would be double tops and double
>bottoms, triple etc..Another would be trend line break outs. You write a
>indicator then turn it into a system then back test the a lot of
>(10yrs)data over different markets. Now I wouldn't give a dime for that
>information myself. The market has character and that changes all the
>time. Like high volume hi volatility then low volume high volatility and
>low volume low volatility. Over all Investor sentiment and major trend
>changes in the whole market. I'm sure there are people on this list that
>can program all these different changes a market goes through that
>directly affect the above differently. But with back testing your going to
>get an average and thats not good enough for me.
>
>Robert
I meant to say if you could program all the different changes a market goes
through. The result of those market changes that can and does effect
certain trade patterns. But without those filters your going to get just an
average from back testing the trade pattern by itself which I wouldn't trust.
Robert
>At 11:31 AM 5/21/00 -0400, Cab Vinton wrote:
>
>> > 2) It is not possible to know which trades have a higher
>> > probability of winning than others.
>> >
>> > What can I say? My own backtesting says very differently.
>>
>>I would be very interested to learn how you determine the probability
>>of a particular trade being successful ahead of time. What kind of
>>backtesting will tell you this?
>>
>>Cheers,
>>
>>Cab Vinton
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