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I'm the answer man today. To determine the probability of a trade you have
to identify the trade pattern. Example would be double tops and double
bottoms, triple etc..Another would be trend line break outs. You write a
indicator then turn it into a system then back test the a lot of
(10yrs)data over different markets. Now I wouldn't give a dime for that
information myself. The market has character and that changes all the time.
Like high volume hi volatility then low volume high volatility and low
volume low volatility. Over all Investor sentiment and major trend changes
in the whole market. I'm sure there are people on this list that can
program all these different changes a market goes through that directly
affect the above differently. But with back testing your going to get an
average and thats not good enough for me.
Robert
At 11:31 AM 5/21/00 -0400, Cab Vinton wrote:
> > 2) It is not possible to know which trades have a higher
> > probability of winning than others.
> >
> > What can I say? My own backtesting says very differently.
>
>I would be very interested to learn how you determine the probability
>of a particular trade being successful ahead of time. What kind of
>backtesting will tell you this?
>
>Cheers,
>
>Cab Vinton
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