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> Wow!
>
> As if traders don't have enough stacked against them..
yea with methods like this I agree that traders have the odds stacked
against them http://www.fibtrader.com/ If you notice each and every one of
the so called projections of the indicators on this web site show a chart
scrolled back in time. There is a reason that the charts do not show the
right side of the screen. That's because guys like these live in the "would
have - should have - could have" past. Mechanical models take action now
and make you face the realities of the risk "if" that's if properly and
honestly tested".
> How do mechanical systems cater to these situations?
if enough moneys at stake then they have three data feeds from three
different sources and then they have a way to manually calculate the method
with a programmable calculator. this is one of the reasons I recommend a
larger intra day time frame because I may have to manually calculate my
trades. I have an associate that is located elsewhere who also backs me up,
with duplicate systems.
> Does anyone have good ELA code for these eventualities??
there is code that can help and various snippets have been posted before
this is nothing new. one of the primary ways to defeat bad data is to use
other than high and low calculations in your code. the reasoning for this
is that a bad tick will most likely appear on a chart as the high or the low
of the intraday session. seldom is the close of the bar a bad tick,
especially on larger time frames. the odds are weighted heavily in your
favor if you heed this advice.
> How do traders feel, placing their money at risk based
> on signals generated by mechanical systems? Who knows
> what the next data error will be, how severe, which
> data vendor?
I know without a doubt that mechanical systems are exactly what most people
need. because that will prompt them to do what they need to do, when they
need to do it. if you wait to be convinced then your too late.
> It takes a TON of emotional strength to trade mechanically!
it takes a ton of emotional strength to trade any market any way.
> Or you need to ignore the risk?
you have to learn to tolerate the risk, that only comes with experience.
> I may learn to admire mechanical traders, it takes guts! Or ignorance..
not guts - knowledge and confidence that was tempered from previous
failures.
I'll leave the ignorance up to others.
> This is a good one for Mark Brown.. If you're reading this,
> Mark, how does your programming test for validity of data?
> What are you testing for? Everyone should incorporate such
> tests, because any data vendor could start having problems..
>
> How about back-testing.. It's wise to back-test with some
> faulty data, to test for true robustness... Any system tested on
> "clean" data could be said to be curve-fitted for clean
> data?
all my methods must at least pass a flat score on random data. that is they
must at least break even, on random generated data with a minimum of 17,500
data points. I now test with 25,000 and that is even less than PO test on -
so I have heard him say. then I expect the method to gain 25% profits by
applying it to the intended data. the rest is money management which has
even more expectations. so you can see that I am primarily a statistical
trader, who completely ignores anomalies that most people dwell upon.
now Neal you answer me this: how do you draw a fib trend thingy on bad
data? how do you propose to train your students to avoid bad data? I guess
since you look back in history its easier to avoid? mark
> -Neal.
>
> -----------------
> Neal on the 'net.
> Trade well. Train hard.
> http://www.halcyon.com/neal/
>
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