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let's look at the Japanese model.. when Mieno tried to dampen entusiasm by
tightening, the unwind was too severe to stop .. so now we have a mini
Greenspan tightening and a bit of an unwind .. the real test will come when
Greenspan eases to save the market and the economy and the market does (or
does not) respond - if he revives it with easy money again, then the Dow
will go to 20,000 but if he has the same problem as Mieno, then it will be
1929 .. I'll bet the market does rebound when he eases and the real mess
happens later when rates are low and there is no room to ease and the
babyboomers are too old to save us with their stock buying proclivities
----- Original Message -----
From: "A. J. Gill" <ajgill@xxxxxxxxx>
To: "Chris Evans" <evanscje@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
Sent: Friday, March 10, 2000 10:32 PM
Subject: Re: FW: is this the beginning of .....
> Chris,
> Kuddos! OK, now that we agree on where we are, can I trouble you
for
> YOUR thoughts
> on where and when you see the "USA Inc." bubble topping or even deflating?
>
> Thanks for your input.
>
> A.J. ajgill@xxxxxxxxx
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Chris Evans" <evanscje@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: "Omega List" <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>; <tradejacker@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> Sent: Thursday, March 09, 2000 8:24 PM
> Subject: Re: FW: is this the beginning of .....
>
>
> > it's not a different world because of tech .. it's a different world
> because
> > baby boomers are consumers of only two things - bigger houses and stocks
> > (and education for their children) and so the wealth effect has become
> self
> > reinforcing (circular) - this should sound familiar (Japan mid 80's) ..
> >
>
>
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