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"During the 2 major down legs of
this very, very long bear market, neither "cups & handles" nor CANSLIM
worked.
Nothing worked on the long side. Keep in mind that these are only bull
market
strategies. Much to Bill's credit he stayed alive and survived to play
another
day. He is an amazing guy. A great innovator and no one is a better stock
picker. Mostly though, he does NOT give up. I would think that his books and
ideas should be at the top of any new traders reading list"
I'm thinking that CANSLIM^-1 (the inverse of CANSLIM) would work in a bear
market. That is look for laggards that move sideways when the sector
bounces or the general market goes up then sell them when they breakout to
the downside and the general market slides to new lows. Use the inverse of
the all the fundamental stuff in CANSLIM too. Some of it you would have to
throw out but it might work. I've also noticed on occasion an inverse cup
and handle that works (more cup than handle) in intraday and dailies. A
recent example of this intraday would be WCOM 2/10/00 on a 5' chart.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: jparris@xxxxxxx [mailto:jparris@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Sunday, February 27, 2000 3:28 PM
> To: frwd@xxxxxxxx
> Cc: List, Omega
> Subject: Re: trends/O'Neil
>
>
> I have seen Bill O'Neil mentioned a number of times on this list.
> I don't do EL
> so I can't contribute anything there. I do know something about
> Bill O'Neil, so
> here is some info that may give some incite to those of you who
> are interested
> in Bill and his systems.
>
> Bill originally discovered the "cup and handle (originally
> saucer)" formation in
> the late 60s. It was a pattern that repeated frequently in the
> '67-'68 bull
> market. Bill had help from a top market technician named Chet
> Pado and a super
> tape reader named Don George. Chet had been the (closet) TA at
> Fidelity and was
> Jerry Tsai's (for you old timers) right hand man. Don George had
> been a welder
> at Lockheed before before he began making his living off the ponies, and,
> eventually, the stock market. He had a knack ! The discovery of the "cup &
> handle" was probably a collaborative effort. CANSLIM, on the
> other hand, came
> pretty much from Bill alone. From his market observations and
> from the ideas of
> some of history's great traders (i.e.. Livermore, Loeb, Baruch).
> Bill is a great
> reader and distiller of ideas.
>
> In 1967 the O'Neil Fund was the top performing fund in the
> country - +116.3 %
> barely edging out Fred Carr and the Enterprise Fund. At the top
> of the market in
> 1968 Wm. O'Neil + Co. was on top of the world. Bill was one of the highly
> successful young "gunslingers" of the '60s. Money was pouring into his
> individual and institutional accounts as well as several mutual funds he
> managed.
>
> To make a long story short, the 2 phase 1969-1974 bear market
> hit. Bill was
> never able to make any money on the short side. In fact every
> time the market
> hit a short term selling climax, Bill thought the bear market was
> over and began
> buying the stocks which were breaking out, only to be stopped
> out quickly. By
> the time the market hit it's final low in 1974 Bill had lost
> nearly all of his
> accounts and was, basically, out of the management business and in the
> publishing business with his chart services. During the 2 major
> down legs of
> this very, very long bear market, neither "cups & handles" nor
> CANSLIM worked.
> Nothing worked on the long side. Keep in mind that these are only
> bull market
> strategies. Much to Bill's credit he stayed alive and survived to
> play another
> day. He is an amazing guy. A great innovator and no one is a better stock
> picker. Mostly though, he does NOT give up. I would think that
> his books and
> ideas should be at the top of any new traders reading list.
>
> Jim
> ____________
>
>
>
>
>
> Brian Massey wrote:
>
> > "Cup with Handle formations is a new"
> >
> > New? How new? Sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't. Most recent
> > example of when it doesn't is PFE earlier this year. The crowd
> was touting
> > a picture perfect cup and handle formation and it totally
> failed. When they
> > do work though they are explosive in my experience. As for the
> newness of
> > this pattern it can't be that new because William O' Niel wrote
> about it in
> > his original book and he had been using it for years. And
> where did he get
> > it from.
> >
> > > -----Original Message-----
> > > From: M. Simms [mailto:prosys@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx]
> > > Sent: Friday, February 25, 2000 10:41 AM
> > > To: JMMain1000@xxxxxxx; network@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx;
> > > omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> > > Subject: RE: Re[4]: trends
> > >
> > >
> > > Cup with Handle formations is a new retracement concept that
> supposedly
> > > works....
> > > never backtested it though.
> > >
> > >
> > > > -----Original Message-----
> > > > From: JMMain1000@xxxxxxx [mailto:JMMain1000@xxxxxxx]
> > > > Sent: Friday, February 25, 2000 9:44 AM
> > > > To: network@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> > > > Subject: Re: Re[4]: trends
> > > >
> > > >
> > > > In a message dated 00-02-25 09:18:20 EST, you write:
> > > >
> > > > << But if you don't enter
> > > > at the high price you will miss some big moves, and reduce
> your systems
> > > > performance. >>
> > > >
> > > > That is exactly the problem with retracement trading:
> > > >
> > > > 1. You miss all of the initial moves.
> > > > 2. The retracement may be a reversal.
> > > >
> > > > I've had mixed results with retracement trading.
> > > >
> > > > So, is it better to try to call trend reversals and take a breakout
> > > > position during the initial move or is it better to wait
> for the first
> > > > retracement?
> > > >
> > > > Jim
> > > >
> > > >
> > >
> > >
> > >
>
>
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