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At 09:01 AM 1/3/00 -0500, Lawrence Chan wrote:
>Anyone has all the historical rate hike data?
>I got not much, about past 20 years.
>Since the crash of 1987 ... The Fed always follow what
>the bond market do with a discount - with a lead of at least
>3 months.
>i.e. if the bond sell to a new lower level, Fed will rate hike.
>Fed wait to see if the bond "stay" at a level before adjusting
>their rate to the new level!
1. Market perceives Fed will hike, bond dives.
2. Fed perceives Market going for higher long term rates, Fed follows.
Offhand, I think it is impossible to discern between the two hypothesis??
At least using just price data alone. (Even with my lower "standards"
of rigour, I take natural experiments as establishing causal relationship)
Any challenge to this position much appreciated.
I remember reading a wire a couple of years ago. It went something like this.
The S&P floor traders said they saw the dollar rallying and bought the S&Ps.
A couple of lines down ...
The fx market said they saw the S&P rallying and they bought the dollar.
Was a good laugh. Unfortunately, I did have the sense to print out the article.
How about bonds tanking and commodities rallying as the business cycle
topping out?
B4 I forget.
Happy New Year all.
>-Lawrence Chan
>----- Original Message -----
>From: Andrew <warlord@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
>
>> More likely, Greenspan is seen going to hike bigger and faster.
>>
>> At 12:00 AM 1/3/00 -0500, Kent Rollins wrote:
>> >Probably some foreign money parked in bonds over Y2K.
>> >
>> >Kent
>> >
>> >
>> >-----Original Message-----
>> >From: Andy <ronin@xxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >To: Code-List <code-list@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>> >Cc: Omega-List <Omega-List@xxxxxxxxxx>
>> >Date: Sunday, January 02, 2000 9:11 PM
>> >Subject: CL_Bonds tanking
>> >
>> >
>> >Any reasons why bonds are tanking tonight? Y2K, perhaps? :-)
>> >
>> >Previous low was 90^23 on 10/25/1999. Right now, it's at 90^10 with a low
>of
>> >90^08. If that's the case, we should be way over 6.5% in yield.
>>
>> "The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general
>> will be linked up by one mechanism, which will produce
>> comforts and conveniences beyond human imagination.
>> But the smallest mistake will bring the whole mechanism
>> to a certain collapse. "
>> Pir-o-Murshid Inayat Khan, 1922 (Sufi Prophet)
>>
>>
"The conveniences and comforts of humanity in general
will be linked up by one mechanism, which will produce
comforts and conveniences beyond human imagination.
But the smallest mistake will bring the whole mechanism
to a certain collapse. "
Pir-o-Murshid Inayat Khan, 1922 (Sufi Prophet)
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