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| -----Ursprungliche Nachricht-----
| Von: pierre.orphelin [SMTP:pierre.orphelin@xxxxxxxxxx]
| Gesendet am: Tuesday, October 19, 1999 11:51 AM
| An: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
| Betreff: Re: Neuro/Fuzzy Recommendation for TS?
|
|
| ----- Message d'origine -----
| De : Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
| A : 'Ian MacAuslan' <imacauslan@xxxxxxx>; <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
| Envoye : mardi 19 octobre 1999 10:31
| Objet : AW: Neuro/Fuzzy Recommendation for TS?
|
|
| > I am not aware of any successful trader using these techniques outside
world
| >
| > famous PO and maker of SirTrade of course as he has claimed so publicly
| > recently.
|
| Hehe....
| I'm not the maker of Safir-X / Sirtrade, but I participated to the
| development and the concept.
| The Software was developed by JewelSoft, a neurofuzzy logic specialist.
| I use to do what I know ( I supose that I'm better with trading systems than
| with AI) in
| this project, so the software is the result of both types of knowledge.
|
|
| > A good indication is that institutionals with all their money have not
| > embarked
| > on a widespread trading effort on such premises. If it were so good, you
| > would
| > see lots more money invested in such ventures.
|
| Certainly not.
| Institutional only pay Nobel Prize to develop high end trading application.
| FYI, I have not been yet on their list.
|
|
|
| > My best guess is that you may have some success on a longer term basis in
| > some
| > cases, but I have serious doubts as to daytrading appropriateness.
| > I find it is really tough to trust these babies day in day out, signal
after
| >
| > signal. It is like sticking your neck out each time without knowing what
| > exactly you are doing.
| >
|
| You should maybe try the Safir evaluation verson with intraday data, then
tell
| us
| what it really does.
| It's free and only needs a couple of hours to see the results,assuming that
| you are starting from scratch.
|
| Sincerely,
|
| -Pierre Orphelin
| Neurofuzzy Logic tools for TradeStation
| Free evaluation versions and competitive upgrades available
| web: http://www.sirtrade.com
Well I happen to have talked to major accounts in the US, in the UK, in Japan,
in France and in Germany, and by major I mean people who manage well over a
trillion $ collectively. Their view on AI is that it is not reliable, at least
doesn't warrant firing managers to replace them with machines. Believe me, they
wouldn't hesitate. Now the last public example of AI is what the hedge funds
are doing, and they have not been doing better than traditional funds, if doing
well at all.
Apart from some well publicized stories like LTCM which was short so much
Volatility on the European markets that we came hair close to a bank meltdown
in derivatives and subsequent market crash (they held over 40% of the total
open short volatility position, with gammas which would have provoked a
multiple of 1987 volatility), others have not been doing that well either: See
Tiger.
BTW if you talk with some of the major CPOs in the industry, you will find out
they are not too keen on AI. If the big and smart money is staying away (KIO,
US and Japanese billionaires etc), why should I know better?
Draw your own conclusions. There is no shortcut to riches, there are only
shortcuts to your wallet.
GwennFrom ???@??? Tue Oct 19 10:09:11 1999
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From: "pierre.orphelin" <pierre.orphelin@xxxxxxxxxx>
To: <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
References: <01BF1A54.58B0CCA0.ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
Subject: Re: Neuro/Fuzzy Recommendation for TS?
Date: Tue, 19 Oct 1999 18:18:58 +0200
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----- Message d'origine -----
De : Gwenael Gautier <ggautier@xxxxxxxxxxx>
À : <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
Envoyé : mardi 19 octobre 1999 18:06
Objet : AW: Neuro/Fuzzy Recommendation for TS?
Your conclusions are invalid because you compare a general concept ( AI applied to
trading) with a precise question dealing with availability of a neurofuzzy software to TS users.
Dowload the trial version, do some experiment with it , then afer speak about it.
For what I know, all these funds are not using neurofuzzy logic and they have not bought
our software, LCMT included. So what do you want to compare ?
Sincerely,
-Pierre Orphelin
Neurofuzzy Logic tools for TradeStation
Free evaluation versions and competitive upgrades available
web: http://www.sirtrade.com
>
> Well I happen to have talked to major accounts in the US, in the UK, in Japan,
> in France and in Germany, and by major I mean people who manage well over a
> trillion $ collectively. Their view on AI is that it is not reliable, at least
> doesn't warrant firing managers to replace them with machines. Believe me, they
> wouldn't hesitate. Now the last public example of AI is what the hedge funds
> are doing, and they have not been doing better than traditional funds, if doing
> well at all.
>
> Apart from some well publicized stories like LTCM which was short so much
> Volatility on the European markets that we came hair close to a bank meltdown
> in derivatives and subsequent market crash (they held over 40% of the total
> open short volatility position, with gammas which would have provoked a
> multiple of 1987 volatility), others have not been doing that well either: See
> Tiger.
>
> BTW if you talk with some of the major CPOs in the industry, you will find out
> they are not too keen on AI. If the big and smart money is staying away (KIO,
> US and Japanese billionaires etc), why should I know better?
>
> Draw your own conclusions. There is no shortcut to riches, there are only
> shortcuts to your wallet.
>
> Gwenn
|