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I'm starting to like Larry better for saying this.
Robert
At 06:42 AM 7/28/1999 -0700, nonlinear wrote:
>well, another technical cult guru bits the big weenie :)) i guess that
>explains why miles dunbar is publishing commodity timing these days.
>whatever.
>
>ya gotta love it!!!
>
>TJ
>
>at one time, i thought all this technical stuff meant something. i no
>longer think it means much. -- larry williams
>
>
>Chicago-July 27-FWN--Larry Williams has evolved from a technical trader
>in the 1960s into one who now relies heavily upon fundamentals and
>conditions. "At one time, I thought all this technical stuff meant
>something," he said. "I no longer think it means much. "Books of that
>era (the 1960s) professed that charts answered everything. I don't
>really believe that anymore. I think what answers everything is
>fundamentals. Things happen for a reason. "Before taking any trade, I
>need to have something that has set it up on a fundamental
>basis--whether it's a short- term trade or a long-term trade. Then I'll
>bring in the technical aspect. "I am what I call a `conditional
>trader.' I've got to have conditions. The conditions are more important
>than some whirly-gig oscillator or a trendline on a chart. "I think
>those things explain the past. But they don't explain the future."
>Williams is a highly regarded trader who focuses mainly on futures
>markets, although he will occasionally trade an individual stock. He
>lives by Rancho Santa Fe, Calif., near San Diego. He has written
>several books, including "How I Made $1 Million Trading Commodities
>Last Year," which was about one of his trading years in the early
>1970s. He has had two other $1 million dollar years. In 1987, he won
>the Robins World Cup Trading Championship by turning $10,000 in to $1.1
>million. And in 1997, he turned $50,000 into more than $1 million. Some
>of his other books include "How Seasonal Factors Influence Commodity
>Prices" and two volumes of "Definitive Guide to Commodity Trading." His
>most recent book is "Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading." Williams
>described his shift from a technical trader to a fundamental/conditions
>trader as a gradual learning process. The conditions he monitors range
>from fresh news to historical tendencies. "It has to deal with
>cause-and-effect relationships in the marketplace," he said. "Those
>things are controlling. Charts don't move the markets. Markets move the
>charts. And I need to find out what those things are that are moving
>the markets. "Also, I prefer to have not just one (condition). I'd like
>to have a couple. I'd like to have a loaded deck." Some of the data he
>tracks include the Commitments of Traders reports that come out every
>other Friday, investor sentiment indexes, interest rates, and
>relationships of markets to other markets. He added that there are
>certain times of the year when the Federal Reserve has tended to add
>money to the economy. Once Williams determines whether a market's
>conditions are bullish or bearish, he might use technical factors for
>specific entry into a market and placement of stops. But, he added, "I
>think too many people have seen technicals as the be-all, end-all, and
>they don't see it as one, little tiny element of the puzzle." Some
>traders tend to favor technical analysis because they say it's hard to
>ascertain whether a fundamental condition is fully or partially
>factored into a market. "I understand their point," said Williams. Yet,
>he maintained that fundamentals cannot be ignored, either. "The
>fundamentals are not precise as a timing technique. But a technical buy
>signal in a fundamental bull market has a totally different impact than
>a technical buy signal in a fundamental bear market. You have to go
>back and check the premise. "A buy signal is not always a (reliable)
>buy signal. It depends on the conditions. If the stage is set for a
>rally, great, the buy signal is going to work. But if it isn't, the buy
>signal isn't going to work very well." Williams' average trade tends to
>last from three to five days. His favorite futures markets are the
>bonds and S&P 500 futures index. "They have lots of movement, and I
>need that as a short-term trader," he said. "They are very
>fundamentally oriented. There are lots of cause-and-effect things in
>the bond market and stock market, and I like to have that advantage
>
>
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