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Alan,
There is a paper at the OFOR site you may be interested in. It's titled "An
Analysis of the Profiles, Motivations, and Modes of Habitual Commodity
Speculators". It's a good paper detailing exactly what the title says. Lots of
interesting stats and generalizations (typical trader is more concerned about
win/loss rather than the amount won/lost, typical trader more worried that he'll
miss a move by not trading rather than losing, most traders surveyed seldom or
never used stops, the average trader had a career net trading loss of $72k...).
The paper also has quite a few references to other studies.
The OFOR site is: http://w3.aces.uiuc.edu/ACE/ofor/aboutofor.html
Regards,
Bill Vedder
Alan Myers wrote:
> MB said
> ...I was told that the average
> account 5000 to 15,000 that was opened up to daytrade the e-mini SP. Closed
> due to debit or was inactive because of a lack of funds within 4 to 6 weeks
>
> >TJ sez ****>
> >**** i know for a fact that less than 1/10 of 1% of futures traders at
> >my clearing firm have gains on the 1099's that are sent out last year.
> >so if you want to become a day trader, the odds are stacked against
> >you.
>
> --- Ron Augustine <RonAug@xxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
> I don't have any stats, but imo, it's probably far less than 5% of the
> people who attempt day-trading that meet with any worthwhile degree of
> success
>
> Is there any possibility of ANYONE ever finding out what the truth really
> is? Not guesses or heresay or survey of traders, but some real numbers?
> What are the real odds of trading success (not just daytrading)? I have
> never seen such numbers but plenty of guessing or generally accepted failure
> percentages. I'm talking about numbers that are objective, and therefore,
> probably not from traders.
>
> I came across some numbers from a study done by a large mutual fund that
> studied the profitability of switching from one fund to another - only
> within the same company because that was all of the data that was available
> to them. I would have to search for it to find the exact numbers but almost
> all "fund switchers" lost money in one of the greatest bull markets of all
> time. To date, that is the only objective information I have ever seen. It
> must have been leaked!
>
> Getting accurate stats from the stocks, options and futures industry is like
> getting the tobacco industry to admit that smoking is addictive. It can't be
> very pretty. I just wonder if it is worse than we believe.
>
> ~Alan
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