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Yeah, I think most people quit when they realize that it actually takes work
to win. Winning in any advanced profession isn't easy so why would you
expect trading to be any different? Why do most businesses fail? Why do
most musicians fail to make it? Doctors, lawyers, writers, actors,
athletes, whatever... The list goes on and on. I don't think people who
whine about how trading is sooo hard stop to compare trading to any other
similar profession. It's no different.
But that's the really cool part about trading is that it's open to anyone.
Anyone at all with practically any money can take their shot at glory. But
the failure statistics are going to be staggering because there is no filter
like there is in say baseball or football where you have to be recruited.
In baseball or basketball or other sports, you've got to prove you have
talent and then just maybe you've got a chance. In trading all you need is
a few thousand bucks. Golf is similar to trading in that it's open to
anyone but still there's a filter. In sports once you fail, you've probably
had it. In trading, you can keep coming back and making the same mistakes.
So much for those failure statistics. In sports, losers are dissuaded from
continuing. In trading, they're encouraged to keep trying! In sports, to
win you've got to at least be in the top 1/10 of 1% too. In trading,
unfortunately, it's the same. So what's so different about trading?
Nothing. It's not the sucker's bet people who don't know like to make it
out to be. The only sucker is the sucker who thinks he can win without
practice.
Another problem with trading (from a losers perspective) is that it's
completely free form. By that I mean you can do anything at anytime.
Dealing with that kind of unstructured env requires rules too make sense of
it. But no one tells us what those rules are. We're used to having them
handed to us in life and some look for ways to be spoon-fed in the markets.
Books hint at them, they tell us where to look perhaps but few beginning
traders have access to truly useful set of rules. And then no rules work
all the time so we have to determine the percentages. And then there's all
the bad rules that masquerade as good ones. To find what works, takes time
and $$$ and usu a lot of failure. Some people are better at developing
rules than others but most people aren't used to making rules and either
resist or ignore them completely. Those who ignore it pay the price
repeatedly but those who learn eventually succeed. During this time you can
loose everything and loose it repeatedly. The failure statistics reflect
that. Afterall, no one says you have to cut your losers. Finally, once we
find the rules we have to learn to follow them. Unfortunately the arrogance
that leads you towards a career in trading is the arrogance that can ruin
you. So you think you just know in your gut where the markets headed?
Fine, I'll take the other side of that trade. Thanks!!!
And then there's that whole lack of mentorship thing. In sports, we can
watch and emulate the world's greatest players. We have access to them
almost 24x7. We can watch their every move, study why they win and why they
fail. Pattern our game after theirs. This type of training is a
prerequisite in almost every top profession yet it's something that's
totally absent (for most) in trading. Doctors train new doctors, old
musicians train new ones, old golfers train new golfers, and on and on. In
trading, you're lucky if you get anything but a lot of shitty advice from so
called experts.
These are just a few reasons I could think of off the top of my head why
failure stats in the markets seem so sobering. But when you stop to think
about it, they really aren't that high because all advanced professions have
similar statistics. It's just a law on earth. It's the law in a competitive
arena that a few will succeed, the majority will fail or not succeed as
much. This will probably offend some but oh well. Think about how many
species over time have evolved and died off because some other better
adapted competitor beat them out for a limited resource. Lots! Probably in
the area of hundreds of thousands if not millions if you include insects and
organisms we can't even see.
The bottom line is that trading statistics aren't that different than any
other competitive venture. The people who see and know this and work to
beat the odds and believe in themselves are the ones who win. The ones who
loose are the ones who get confused then start spouting statistics like
this. Trading takes talent for sure but it's not the kind of talent that
can't be developed. Success can be achieved with work and diligence but if
you have an innate ability then your success will be that much greater.
B.
> -----Original Message-----
> From: TradeWynne@xxxxxxx [mailto:TradeWynne@xxxxxxx]
> Sent: Saturday, July 17, 1999 11:58 AM
> To: tradejacker@xxxxxxxxx; omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
> Subject: Re: Summary of comments: NASQAQ 100, SOES
>
>
> In a message dated 7/17/99 10:56:36 AM Pacific Daylight Time,
> tradejacker@xxxxxxxxx writes:
>
> > i know for a fact that less than 1/10 of 1% of futures traders at
> > my clearing firm have gains on the 1099's that are sent out last year.
> > so if you want to become a day trader, the odds are stacked against
> > you.
>
> I agree with most all of what you say, and most traders do lose,
> but only one
> in a thousand make money? The data I'm aware of is not that bad,
> and I've
> looked at stacks of 1099's myself. If you are correct then the odds are
> stacked against all futures traders. Will that one guy on the list making
> money please drop me a line.
>
> BW
>
>
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