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well, jim, maybe ron did get it, in that, trust no one, including
myself. but no, ron didn't get it entirely. if you don't believe what i
say, then do your OWN research and either prove or disprove my
statements to YOUR satisfaction. also, examine the authors motivations.
what do i have to gain? nothing, since i'm not selling anything. i
don't discredit all vendors, just the scamming system selling
slicksters. i've endorsed vendors that provide trading tools, such as
mark jurik, the global variable guys, and so on. these guys sell you
tools to develop your own stuff. that's good. they are not the enemy.
neither are guys like chuck lebeau who sells systems that appear to
work as advertised (what a refreshing change:)); and you don't have to
sell your first born to buy em either. plus chuck's website has a
wealth of information on each system so that you can make an informed
decision whether or not you want to get his stuff. the same with
jurik's site too.
okay, back to ron's questions: (1) yes, i've got 2 decades worth of
records, but no, all of it is confidential; (2) and no, there's no
rigorously detailed published references that i know of, but you can
figure out why.....lawsuits, both on the publisher and author. the
closest i've found discussed publicly in a trading rag was the
(in)famous t.a.s.a.s. flameout in 1983-r.i.p.86 (see cftr sept-oct,
1986, p.3; yes, it's "ancient" history, but still very instructive)
here's what the craig pardey, the system developer, said in 1984: "The
TASAS system is a foolproof way of making money. I don't see any chance
it will lose money over a twelve-month period. It is the only
consistently profitable mechanical trading system in the world." well,
yeah, right, until the markets changed a year later and tasas puked its
curve fitted guts out. but tasas was unique is one respect, most
investors didn't lose money if they regularly withdrew profits from
their managed accounts, in spite of the fact that the accounts started
with beginning equity of 35,000 and ended with $13,000. i don't think
pardey was a crook, he was just stubborn and tried to make the market
fit his model rather than vice versa. the more things change.........
so what to do? two things: one, call the cme or any exchange of your
choice, ask for some pit references, then talk to these floor guys (or
talk to your own floor guys), and ask how many of the new guys are left
after 6 months. i'll bet the answer is 1 or none. floor newbies blow
out quicker than off floor newbies. the reasons are obvious. second,
call your clearing firm, tell em that you're doing a marketing survey,
and ask of how many accounts have had profitable 1099's sent out last
year in the $3,000 to $10,000 range (typical newbie account size). i'll
bet that's it's around 1-2%, maybe less, maybe more, varies a bit from
firm to firm. then ask how many accounts that were opened last year
were still active at the end of the year. i'll bet maybe 5-10% or so. i
believe the active accounts figure is higher than the 1099 figure
because the small newbie trader suspends trading for a while, rather
than closing the account, "hoping" to add money and begin trading again
with a "new" system. it's a vicious cycle, like a addict needing a fix
to feel "normal" again.
maybe neil weintraub can shed some light on these figures, but my
research has found them to be right on. again, don't believe me, check
it out for yourself.
as far as finding out about who uses the slick vendor systems, talk to
the floor guys, newbies love to brag about their system de jour when
they're winning. and floor guys love to fade these loser systems too. a
lot of the personal stuff i've accumulated over the years were from
private discussions with blown out traders garnered in bars (after a
few drinks :)) during trading seminars and conventions. also, i
continued talking to some of the guys over a period of a few months to
a year. most of the time, these guys are embarassed to hell that "it
happened to them," ie, blowing out. but hope springs eternal with the
arrival of each new slick glossy ad promising trading riches with this
seminar or system or that. and the cycle continues....
TJ
sorry ron, but i got jim's reply first, welcome to the pecularities of
the i-net <g>
--- Jim <JParris@xxxxxxx> wrote:
> This sounds like an argument one might hear between a savvy trader
> and an
> Omega solution provider.
>
> Jim
> _____________________________________
> TJ wrote:
>
> >i've seen many traders blow out their accounts after purchasing or
> leasing
> the
> >latest system de jour which received positive reviews in prominent
> >trade rags such as futures and tasc. newbies, bless their dumb
> naive
> >hearts, actually believe what is written about these systems and
> >essentially mortgage the farm to throw 5-10k for an curve fit piece
> of
> >fecal matter that explodes when it is traded for any length of
> time.
> >this sad scenario repeats itself year after year
>
> I
> Ron replied:
>
> (1)Do you have any objective, verifiable proof that backs-up your
> statements?
> (2) If so, would you post some references to it?
>
> Otherwise, are members of this forum expected to believe your claims
> just as
> you would have them reject the claims of others?
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