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> > To build a good trading system, you need to find something that happened
in the recent past that correlates well with what the price is going to do
in the future. This is fundamental. Without it, it is just gambling.
markets have personality, each market has its own personality, choppy and
trending differences. each market has a foundation, each foundation has
different properties even though the properties are similar. it would be
foolish to expect all market properties to be the same just as it would be
foolish to expect all people are the same. similar properties still provide
the end product that makes up the foundation. there are good foundations
and bad ones, bad ones crack over time and good ones hold up. time is the
key element (or is it?) that will decide what is correctly built or not.
how then can we know without experiencing the time elapse whether or not a
system will hold up? testing - there again we have good testing and bad
testing. a proper way to build a system and an improper way to build a
system.
experience, can be obtained by massive amounts of computer generated data,
only if that data is not mush going in. how to mine for the proper data is
a mystery that will remain to those who refuse to believe it can be done, so
be it. however i would caution you that what the human mind perceives as an
impossible task on a computer - and only thought obtainable by the human
mind. are the very processes that a properly programmed computer data
mining process involves, only to a higher degree of accountability.
accountability? the human mind can rationalize away that which does not fit
the mold or the expected outcome. the poor honest computer knows nothing of
this process and refuses to deliver anything but that which is true. if you
can not withstand the test of time then you need to avoid the
confrontational outcome of accurate computer system modeling. where does
this leave us?
all this work done and to perfection, still leaves a weak link in the chain.
we allow our eyes and our emotions to rule over that which is false, not
relying on the hard facts. instead we try and overpower the data with
reason and logic that surely must be correct, why! how! can we not trust the
innate responses that our very being is intertwined with? destruction of
truth, throughout the ages - to tear down that which is just and true. to
scoff at that which is not of the ordinary, only latter in years to see it
become a dominate force.
properties+testing+accountability+experience= mechanical system trading
success
properties+testing+accountability+emotions= mechanical system destruction
mb
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