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commercial is usually on the otherside (the wrong side) of
index future and financial markets :)
because they do not anticipate the change in direction
but react to that only.
sudden drastic change in speculator positions in these mkts
usually tell something useful as their livelihood depends
on their correct bet on the directional change.
lately the small traders are doing better then before in
these mkts ... they used to be almost always on the wrong side :)
In summary - COT tells almost nothing about these mkts.
-Lawrence Chan
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> From: Rus Newton <rpn@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>
> I think it depends partly on the market.
>
> We always felt that in energy, large commercial long positions were
> associated with commercials having hedged away large physical short
> positions - which does not suggest bullishness, if commercials have a
good
> call on the underlying physical market (which ought to be true).
>
> In a financial market, this relationship would probably not hold.
>
> Rus Newton
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: gil ward [mailto:gw1933@xxxxxxxxxxx]
>
> when the commercials are heavy on long side, does that usually mean a
> rally could be in waiting? Opposite for heavy in shorts.??????????????
> Gil
>
>
>
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