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I must disagree with you on the rise of OI in the Soybeans between July
and Oct 1998, this market did rise and the market or commercials took profit
on this rise, if you look at the OI between the peak in the first of October
and 5-6 weeks past this the OI declined and soon after the market went lower.
Also the Commercials had the largest net long position in 3 years in the
beginning of October and had gone negative when the highs were made in mid to
late October.
In my own trading, I find that OI is only good as an indicator to
tighten my protective stops, but not for taking an opposite position. I trade
long term and use the 40ma on the weekly bars as my trend identifier.
You are right though, OI can be viewed differently by those who use it.
Trade well.
Jim
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