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> + All I know of his work is what I read in his two books.
think! good guy to publish and sell the holy grail?
> + He test common and popular investment methodologies. Most of these had
fundamental components or were entirely fundamental.
his waste of time, and any fundamental data used is pure crap...
> + The data used was Standard & Poor's Compustat Active and Research
Database.
whatever..if it wasn't the actual price data of what he had his money on
then its irrelevant to making money and highly relevant to loosing money.
> + The universe of stocks are all the stocks in the database.
> + Yes it was daily data.
figured it waz ; - )
> + The research was based on using criteria to select stocks for buy and
hold with a yearly reevaluation.
wow now theres a concept!
> + He back tested from 1950 - 1994
STILL is stupid to assume that 11,000 points of data is enough for a good
test...very stupid indeed
> + His goal was to see which (if any) common methodologies beat the the
universe of stocks and at what risk.
common methods, great that takes allot of brain power.. guess he was
thinking (wishing) that someone missed something ; - )
>>and what scientific test did you run to assume that his work looked pretty
solid?
>
>None. I just read the book and saw that he took into account many
things -- some of which I would not have thought about:
snip, snip, snip
>+ He made sure that he did not use data before it was available
historically.
well that was good he waited until he had something to trade to place a
trade on?
>> - you run zillions of iterations of on a powerful Unix machine with
software that would make ts look like a 3 year old in wet pants and that
qualified your thinking that his methods looked pretty solid?
>Unfortunately I don't have access to that kind of services. I'm pretty
basic -- any testing I do is written in C on and run against ASCII data
>files. I thought about exploring his work, but the Compustat databases
were outside my budget.
basic doesn't cut it, no matter what anyone says, i have NEVER actually seen
a basic trader (oh sure we will hear about them soon) make money year after
year. nor for a fact have i ever seen anyone who did a basic job succeed at
anything...
a basic trader will have his run, and then live on that remembrance!!!! for
the rest of his loosing life.
>>zillions of iterations of on a powerful Unix machine with software that
>
>You imply here that the only way to make a successful system or methodology
iterations on a machine... True? If so does that mean that you view almost
all the traders on this list (unless they get lucky) doomed to failure?
i am kicking myself for not making that perfectly clear, sorry i have failed
in life to get my point across!
>You have also indicated by your many emails on this list that most of what
is sold is worthless and worse.
worst because its a waste of time, however sadly most have to experience the
garbage only consuming it first..
>So what is your suggested pathway to success for those of us who do not
have the resources you do?
understand that the markets are a Dixie cup ((what seems to be the rim of
the cup is next years bottom (just gave you a very important math formula
for success)). the only market guru is the price and your account balance.
if it feels good its bad and if it feels bad its good. if its obvious its
too late and if you have peer support then your on the wrong track.
let me turn that around and ask, what do you think you are going to do on
your own? read a book, go to a local meeting or two, spring for a trip out
of town to go to a seminar? we aren't talking about taking the boat out for
a spin at your leisure or mowing the lawn or waxing your car. we are
talking about war a serious deadly game of it...
mb
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>== Rob ==
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>== Rob ==
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