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I appreciate the insignificance of the sampling, but its curious how the
event repeated since1968. I can't offer any explanation, but the seemingly
rare recurrences of this and other similar kinds of events often extend the
recurrence one more time! Surrounding the probability with biased puts/calls
seems to afford a reasonable risk:reward, particularly when several of these
events are traded. Go figure!! I can't, but it seems to work, and I'd like
to understand it better. The more conjecture on the subject the better.
Colin West
303-741-8690
Englewood, CO USA
-----Original Message-----
From: Mben@xxxxxxx [mailto:Mben@xxxxxxx]
Sent: Friday, October 23, 1998 11:38 AM
To: colin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx; omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx
Subject: Re: test this "fact"
In a message dated 10/22/98 1:32:30 PM Eastern Daylight Time,
colin@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx writes:
<< When Platinum gaps higher and rallies more than 1.5% but Copper gaps
lower,
over the next three days, Platinum declines over 2% on average in 8 of 10
past occurrences (since 1968). >>
IMHO this type of analysis has little to no value.......8 or 10 occurences
means nothing......I'm not even sure if 40 or 50 would mean anything.
Mark Benjamin
mben@xxxxxxx
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