|
PureBytes Links
Trading Reference Links
|
Dans un courrier daté du 20/10/98 01:53:23é Pari23 Madrid, bfulks@xxxxxxxxxxxx
a écrit :
>
> I think popular "Gambler Indicators" work for discretionary traders for the
> following reason. When I see the Stochastic (on any other such indicator)
> turn down, it is an alert signal that the market MAY be turning down. I
> then scan back through the past price and Stochastic chart to see if I see
> other cases (patterns) that look like this one. If I do, I see what
> happened to the price.
>
> If I find several similar cases that ended up leading to profitable trades
> I feel more confident taking this trade. If similar cases turned out not to
> lead to profitable trades, I would tend to pass on this one. In effect, I
> filter out trades based upon recognizing past similar situations. (In
> practice, the discretionary trader might use several such indicators.)
>
> I do not know how to program a computer to do this. It is easy to program
> it to trade if the Stochastic turns down and crossed under some value. If
> you do this you get some good trades and a lot of bad ones, ones that the
> discretionary method would have filtered out.
>
No need of a discretionary method to filter out this.
It's programmable, but with some AI software:
Either a data mining one ( you will need thousands of signifiant cases), or
another that I know better.
The problem is vey simple to post:
You want a sell signal on a turn down and a crossover ofthe K% D%.
You know by experience that the level at which the crossover will be
valuable is not the same according to external market conditions.
So, you need to find out what could be the " driving" indicator ( the one that
moves the K% D% level of decision)
Say for example that it's an ADX based relationship (makes sense).
You will have to find out a bunch of rules to have valid signals with your KD
crossover and the ADX.
Suppose that you could do this by hand, it will take some hours and a great
deal of trial and error.
Suppose now that there are two driving indicators: say ADX and volatility
(makes sense too, and both are carrying different information).
Will you spend a week or two to build the system that becomes quite
complicated, probably hundreds of rules.
I guess you will not...
Now, something shoud be taken in account: the slope of the trend.
We are candidate now to write a thousand of rules to correctly interpret the
K% D% crossover that is driven by 3 external indicators.
Does it means that it's impossible to write the rules ?
No.
It's only beyond the scope of your brain and of any human brain.
It's easy to a fast silicon chip with some software.
Draw your conclusion by yourself...
Sincerely,
Pierre Orphelin
|