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Re: FED cut forewarning



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Conrad:

I actually had an order in to sell at 1047:50. My floor broker was extremely
hard working and honest--when he saw the huge move up, he pulled my offer and
while I was on the phone, he asked me what I wanted to do. 

You are absolutely correct about locals in the pit having no obligation to sell
or buy at any time, at any price. Locals are not like specialists in the stock
market. They provide liquidity by trading volume, basically. And you can believe
that many locals got hurt Thursday.

I know many stops about the low 1030's were filled in the S&Ps in the mid-1060's
to mid-1070's, but that's really where the first trading took place. The rest
was really an updraft of bids.

Last, I know one person on the list talked about the electronic fill he got at
1035. I would caution everyone, whether they like or dislike electronic trading
in its current state, to check things like this out for yourself. It's a little
self-serving to come on the list after a day when many accounts got wiped by not
being able to even trade in the E*Minis and say that you got great fills during
the mess. If you are using electronic trading and were lucky enough not to have
to trade in that mess, do yourself a favour and call your broker and ask them
how busy they were during that period and if fills were nice and easy and with
little slippage. Seeing the time and sales and speaking with my brokers, I know
the E*minis were an absolute abortion--and anything transmitted on Globex II was
not accepted for a period of time (In fact, my brokerage house chose instead to
fill all business for the rest of the day by phone, but then, they require that
you have phone access if you want electronic access).

It can get ugly when price shocks happen--make sure you are as prepared as you
can be.

Best,

Tim Morge

cb wrote:
> 
> Phil Lane wrote:
> 
> >
> > Did anybody actually have a buy stop in there, and was/wasn't it executed
> > in a reasonable fashion? I'd sure like to know if reality is significantly
> > different than I think it is!
> 
> Someone on a bulletin board stated he had $1900 slippage in the e-mini,
> claimed he had a 1030-ish stop and was filled at 1067.  I don't know the
> details.  Yet someone on the mailing list had his stop filled right at
> his price.
> 
> >Hey guys, isn't the exchange obliged as a condition of doing business to
> > make a market, regardless of whether or not they feel like it?
> >
> > I was looking at a tick chart. Looks pretty orderly to me, the move took 4
> > full minutes. Plenty of time for buy stop orders to be executed. The ones
> > who had problems were the market makers, who were obliged to take the other
> > side of the trades.
> 
> I'm far from an expert in this, but no I don't believe there's an
> obligation.  The reason futures sometimes lock at the limit with no
> trading is that no-one (floor or otherwise) is willing to take the other
> side of the trade within the permissible prices for the day.  There's no
> upside limit on the sp (except at night) so presumably the market would
> find a level where someone would in fact sell.  But I don't think
> there's any rule that says the first trade after the FED announcement
> couldn't have been 1200 if that's the lowest anyone would sell at.  I
> don't think there's any obligation on the part of anyone to take the
> opposite side of your trade if they don't want to.
> 
> I wonder if a lot of the initial sales weren't preplaced orders from
> off-floor, say someone wanting to sell short on a bounce to 1030, with a
> resting order to sell.  Seems like the floor would not sell until there
> was some expectation the rocket ship was slowing down.  Granted, their
> very short timeframe would give them a quick trigger on this.
> 
> Is any of this right?
>                                                         Conrad Bowers