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I haven't seen any responses to this yet, so...
Regarding the Leonid meteor shower expected 11/17:
> The site you list is a little extreme (an understatement?)
Yes, an understatement, IMO. I think the site is VERY extreme.
> CNN had a story on their site about this upcoming meteor shower.
> Apparently it will be exceptionally strong and several satellites
> are being turned to protect their solar panels on Nov. 17 & 18.
Every year around 11/17 the earth travels through a band of comet
debris that results in a meteor shower. Since the meteors appear to
radiate from the constellation Leo, this shower is called the
Leonids. The normal Leonid showers run maybe 1-2 meteors a minute.
It's worth staying up for, since some of the meteors can be fairly
impressive, but definitely nothing worth worrying about. It's
certainly no risk (or at least infinitesimally small risk) to
satellites and other high-tech toys.
Every 32 years or so, the earth runs into an exceptionally dense
region of Leonid debris. This causes meteor storms that can range
from hundreds, to hundreds of THOUSANDS of meteors per hour! From
what I've read, the 1833 picture on that website is not inaccurate.
It must be an incredible sight to see. And this year's storm is
predicted to be a BIG one. I wish I could be in Asia next month...
The previous Leonid showers haven't been that big of a problem,
because there really wasn't anything for them to hurt. There weren't
many satellites in orbit in 1966, so it was just a good show. I
can't believe I don't remember it -- I was a 10-yr-old kid who was
fascinated by science then -- but I believe it happened over North
America.
This year's storm will unfortunately (for viewing purposes anyway)
miss us in North America, and will happen over Asia somewhere.
What is the risk? The website's lurid claims of "worldwide
communications blackouts" are almost certainly false. The website
mentions the EMP (electromagnetic pulse) caused by atomic explosions
in the high atmosphere, and describes how such an EMP could fry most
electronic equipment on the ground. It then suggests that a meteor
storm could have the same effect. I find that *highly* unlikely.
The storm will certainly cause a lot of electromagnetic interference,
but not the level that could toast your CPU. It might swamp out
communications for a while -- especially in the Asian hemisphere --
but I don't think it will cause any permanent damage.
The larger risk is to satellites. With that many grains of sand
hurtling through space at high speed, a couple of them are almost
certain to hit active satellites. Many such hits would probably be
harmless, by hitting non-critical areas of the satellite. But it's
possible for a hit to knock out a solar panel or a critical circuit.
That's why several satellites are being turned: by turning their
solar panels edge-on to the meteor storm, they minimize their chances
of damage.
What does that mean to us? If you're in Asia and you get your data
from one of those satellites, you might be cut off for a day or so.
I would assume your providers would warn you about it in advance.
There's also a chance of data interruption in the rest of the world,
caused by temporary satellite outages or damage. I don't know how
much it will affect North America and Europe, but I suspect not much.
Gary
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