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Re: Trend or No Trend



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Hi Bill;

I use patterns and price to determine my trading decisions. Because I often
fade certain markets the CCI helps establish an over sold are over bought
market. Time of day and direction of the trend over all past days 
is taken into consideration as to the counter trend or buying a retrace for
a continuing trend. If I am fading a strong market trend that I feel has
gone to far but still is dangerous I will use options to counter.
Momentum helps me buy and sell retrace with the trend and the MA is use for
a guide line and base on long look back to determine the major strength and
direction of the trend. I trade very short term and will trade any market
but I have to watch a market several weeks to get a feel for it. For
example silver is a great market to fade at key resistance points because
people just like being long in that market and commercials love hedging it.
I am watching 4.74 in Dec if it holds I will wait to sell after I see it
mess with 5.00 again or the recent highs. I like to trade so if nothing is
going on in the bonds and other markets I'll trade the S&P at certain times
of the day only. I never go home with a futures position only options
unless its a position type trade. I position trade based on fundamentals
that I can afford like grains and meats and I never use price verses cost
of production. Later I will use indicators to get out and past price
history resistance and support levels. I also keep an eye out for certain
stocks that have establish patterns of highs and lows and will at time hold
them maybe a day are two. Thats it a pretty scary site now that its down in
words. I love trading and spend hours looking for better ways to trade are
to improve on what I'm currently doing. I think the one thing people do
that is a mistake in my eyes is try to trade like everybody else. My physic
is bad for trading but I know it so I can't trade like you but I can trade
an be profitable. You got to know your weaknesses and risk tolerance levels
then you can pick a style you can live with so your emotions do not work
against you. This is something else I think matters to me as far as trading
is my attitude and if its not good then I will likely not trade well so I
try and keep a good attitude before I trade. Most of the time I can but if
I can't I just don't trade are trade lighter. Another rule I break is I
anticipate what the trades going to do before it does it and yes its base
on price patterns. I think I could trade just on indicators base on a very
long term time scale then amount of money I would lose to lag would be made
up with time and that time being profitable in the trade. So to answer your
question day trading is my main trading style although position trading
usually makes up a larger percent of my gains for the year.

Robert


At 06:34 PM 10/13/98 +0100, T-BONDTRADER wrote:
>Sounds like you believe in price action and not indicators.    Well, well,
>well...
>
>Can one ask what your main trading activity is?  Day trading?  Position
>trading?  System?
>Discretion?
>
>Following on from your answer, what would you describe as your main trading
>aids?
>
>Just interested - bearing in mind what you have said.
>
>Bill Eykyn
>
>
>-----Original Message-----
>From: Mark Brown <markbrown@xxxxxxxxxxxxx>
>To: omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx <omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>; Bob Fulks
><bfulks@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Cc: flag@xxxxxxxxxxxx <flag@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
>Date: Tuesday, October 13, 1998 3:40 pm
>Subject: Re: Trend or No Trend
>
>
>>
>>>One simple approach that is not too bad is to use two moving averages of
>>different lengths.
>>
>>I prefer this method :  I look at a chart and determine what the obvious
>>trend is.  How do you know what the obvious trend is?  Show a chart to any
>>10 year old and ask them what the general direction of the chart is UP or
>>Down.  Once this is determined then I enter the market with a trade size
>>thats too big for my account in the opposite direction.  Then hours, days
>>latter my broker calls me and either tells me I'm a genius or he wants more
>>money,  at this time I know what the trend really is.
>>
>>What I'm trying to get across is the following :  If you can determine the
>>trend thane its too late to do you any good.  You should either ignore the
>>trend or  have a fail safe reversal in your system that automatically buys
>a
>>break in the direction of the trend.  Until then you need to go about your
>>merry way trading chop ranges, or occupying your time in some other
>>constructive manor.  If you dont you'll likely die of boredom waiting for
>>that trend that can only be identified after the fact.
>>
>>MB
>>
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