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>A professional gambler must know the 'odds' , to survive ?
Absolutely. But I would call him a "speculator". In my terminology, a
"gambler" is one who takes uncalculated risks. These people who dismiss the
importance of backtesting (I call it "research") are either nuts or else
they gave up too easy. But history DOES tend to repeat itself, and there
are simple patterns that happen over and over again, if you're smart enough
to find them.
Regarding the endless "market opinion" blather lately, there is one good
thing about it. When everybody gets extremely bearish (like now) you know
things are just about ready to turn up again. One of my "systems" had a buy
signal (for SP) thursday MOC. BTW, this signal is not rocket science. In
fact I posted it publicly to this list in the past (nobody noticed or
cared). With the extreme bearish sentiment I doubled up! Not that I know
the trade will work. Actually I don't care. I know the odds are in my
favor, and the exit rules will prevent me from getting hammered too badly.
If it doesn't work this time, it probably will work next time.
There are successful traders out there who don't use TS systems but trade
their view/opinion. Doesn't work for me. If I've entered a trade on the
basis of my opinion, and then it starts ticking against me, suddenly I
can't tell if my opinion was real or if I was just fooling myself! I guess
these individuals have a larger brain than I do. The only way I've been
able to succeed is to devote what brain power I have to system development.
Then I can put the actual trading on automatic.
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