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Re: Major Change in Trend for Commodities



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> >What happened in late August to cause the change in so many
> >markets?

The central banks intervened against the fall of the yen. This way 
they set the signal that it is not a one-way bet to borrow Yen and 
put your money in US dollars. This has caused a major shift in the 
investment behavior of macro funds.

Gerrit Jacobsen
http://www.tickscape.com

> The dollar, gold and CRB are all highly correlated - recent article
> in TASC went into some detail on this. I've been watching the dollar
> closely for months because I feel that the direction of the dollar
> is key to the longer term direction of treasuries, commodities and
> foreign currencies. What has not been noticed amid the flight to
> treasuries is that foreign central banks have been net redeemers of
> treasuries to tune of nearly 20% of $650B in balances a year ago and
> I suspect this may have something to do with dollar decline.
> 
> Earl
> 
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Carl Soderholm <Carl@xxxxxxxxxxxx>
> To: Omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx <Omega-list@xxxxxxxxxx>
> Date: Monday, October 05, 1998 5:20 PM
> Subject: Major Change in Trend for Commodities
> 
> 
> >Have a look at http://www.linkshore.com/
> >
> >The market analysis page shows charts for the Dollar Index, Grains,
> >Unleaded and Gold all lined up so the dates match up. Looks like the trend
> >for all these contracts may have changed in late August when the stock
> >market dip got serious.
> >
> >Has anyone done any work on coincident trend changes in markets?
> >
> >What happened in late August to cause the change in so many markets?
> >
> >
> >
> >Carl
> >
>