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ron wrote:
>Don't mean to detract from the current bashing fest, but I was wondering if
>anyone might be interested in commenting on their perspective of the current
>Market?
Sure, you might label it as off topic <g>
>1. Largest correction in quite some time -- over or not?
Yes...over when Starr released Cigargate. All the bad news is out. I've
been more long than short since that time.
>2. Dow theorists say the bear has arrived based on Daily and Weekly signals
>and they are waiting for the Quarterly Signal shoe to drop in 7 days --
>valid or not?
I think it's all a big whipsaw for the Dow theorists. The bear has gone
bust, like TJ and Bruce said before the fact. The Prechter EW minions are
sweating bullets as they are still 400% short.
>3. Market has been contained by a very well defined by an ascending trading
>channel with four accurate tops and bottoms since Sept. 1 -- today's Up
>Volume (9/23) was impressive -- Breakout to new highs, or another fizzle?
Both ND8Z and CCO broke out above strong resistance today. SPY closed
strongly above its 34 day MA, as did SP8Z. Dow is weak, but so what? The
dog (Dow) generally follows its tail (S&P). Also, Dow is usually weaker
than the general market once a correction is over.
The floor has tried to press em lower and failed over the last week and a
half. The floor has been more long than short this week.
Watch for a convergence between bonds and S&P. If lower interests are even
hinted at by the Fed, then the bonds and S&P will run together for a while,
both moving in tandem. This will screw up a lot of traders still playing
the divergence.
Important numbers: break out above 1079.50 SP8M (50% retracement) projects
a run to 1100 - 1120, an area of strong resistance (and 62% retracement at
1111). Break down below 1060 support will project a run to test the lows
again. Today it broke out strongly above the 38% retracement at 1049.
Retracement fib's are calculated from the 7/20 high to 9/01 low.
-Tony Haas
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