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Mark:
This a truly fascinating answer. I'm not certain I know now how to characterize
my own trading success[in light of your answer], unless you would then credit it
to well-honed money management employed on randowm data?
I'm not sure I understand the difference between 'valid data and random data'
but I'd like to hear more about it.
Best,
Tim Morge
Mark Brown wrote:
>
> It seems that you experienced traders don't believe in
> buying trading systems. It also seems that either you don't have a
> good trading system or you will not share it.
>
> Mark: Both of the above comments are true..
>
> Ralph Vince in his book "Portfolio Management Formulas" wrote a
> completely different assertion:
>
> "If, like so many people, you do not believe you can find a decent
> system for sale, you are sadly mistaken. True, most systems that
> are for sale are junk, yet some are very good, and some are terrific".
> and he completes: "systems, like market ideas, are 99.73% junk".
>
> Mark: Then please have Ralph post here what he will put his faith in..No he
> wont do that! There are talkers and doers, and what everyone hates is a
> talker that can do. But what everyone loves is a talker that cant do, GO
> figure!
>
> My question to all of you is:
> Aren't you guys validating the random-walk hypothesis?
>
> Mark: YES! I have found that there are several trading theories, trade what
> you see, trade with the trend, trade against the trend, trade high
> volatility, trade low volatility and more I agree with them all. Now lets
> get advanced and think about all those categories split into trading valid
> data and trading random data. See now you have not only the trading methods
> to content with but you have pure data, impure data, and mixed together data
> * the different methods of trading. I trade systems on random data that
> make more than on any pure or mixed data. I subscribe to random walk and
> have been successful using it to trade. In this case actually money
> management is the system. I subscribe to pure data theory and make most my
> money this way, while not as quickly gratifying as the random method. It is
> a very stable and trustworthy method of trading. However I have to say that
> once random data has been fenced in it can be also very predictable, thus is
> it truly random? I dont know but I'm going along for the ride anyway. The
> only method that I have found to not work is the very method most use, which
> is to deploy a perfectly sound method and there are many as I 've said. To
> a mixture of random and pure data, which is otherwise know as regular data
> or mixed.
>
> Why are you still in this business?
>
> Mark: Only because I have a mission in life and I will not be deterred to
> long from it, though I wonder from the path quite often. I have found that
> you must recharge your batteries as so well put. MB
>
> Any comments will be gladly appretiated. <appreciated
>
> Alfredo
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