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Re: Never been more long term bullish...



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My family  is waiting for Hongkong to devaluate and go in buy an office or a
residential condo there (if it ever happens). We talked with Red Chinese bank
(Chi Yu) people and they assure us that (Hongkong) China can stand the currency
attack up to end of the year that is. Will try to be online with high level
people of  Bank of China branch in Hongkong, because they are
almost the central bank of Hongkong. As you guys in America goes in mutual funds
(that is, so far) as forever long term investments, us in Asia our culture is on
real estate (so far too!), especially the prime ones.

In the Philippines, our leading real estate stock Ayala Land, with up to now has
still great fundamentals-(almost no debt, and great positive cash flow from
rentals, they even increase their rents the last quarter , they owned almost the
whole of our best commercial real estate. They just launch their biggest project
two weeks ago,a new city-community(how's that for big balls?), complete with
schools, business park and residential suburbs. This company normally pays its
acquisitions through stock. They have a big internal cash flow. But, like the
proverbial baby thrown out the windows along with the bath water,their stock
price today  5.30 ( still going down,almost 8% a day the last 3-4 sessions) from
1996 market high of   28.00, and we have a 50% devaluation in 1997. An
interesting point is it peaked at 1996 not our index high, so it is a leading
indicator for our market as well as top 3 in capitalization. But, still am
patiently waiting for a buy signal technically (now you know my secret why I got
all this time to write to the list). In our country, there are a lot of criminal
insiders(  knew some of these stock promoters & manipulators) whose business
practices is questionable, but not this company, its already more than 100 years
old, and in the hands of the same family with very competent, conservative
credentials.. Normally 20-30% stock dividend every year. Still
waiting for buy signals, was going down parabolic(spiking)  the last few days.

Another is Philippines Long Distance Tel. Co.our local telephone monopoly
utility, listed in New York, the symbol is PHI (which you can trade in New
York), the company's main income is in US$ (from long distance), and this year
they planned to implement meterd telephone billing (because currently, we pay
fixed monthly, whether residential or businesses), us locals expect our phone
bills to balloon 4-5 times in the near future to on average 4-5 times in monthly
bills when implemented late this year or eatly next year. Technically spealing,
yes ,the price is down as with the market, but its relative strength is better
than the market as a whole.

Some news lately, the company is announcing stock rights, for the first time in
more than 5 years,also this year (2nd quarter)it just gave out a 100% stock
dividend.


Fantasy investment.: When Rupiah devaluated from 2,000+ last year to 18,000 this
year (currently 11,000 I think). I was inquiring about seaside condo in Bali
(Yes, the last paradise on earth!!)( I asked an Indonesia on how I go about
that, and she
told me I have to buy condos in a locals name as a dumy, think not!!), was
wishing to buy at their depressed price and currency and just retire there.
After devaluation the cost of living should be around US$10,000.00 annually,
with a nice lifestyle at such a low cost of living.  But then later I realized
they killed Chinese for fun as a govermental (sanctioned) approved national
past  time, (Have you seen rape-murder pictures in Jakarta? Will gladly send you
some, example. Naked half burnt bodies of Chinese women with bottles or brooms
stuck in their orifice,really disgusting) Since am a Chinese, ooops!, better for
you Caucasians to invest there!


Actually if I were you guys (in America) evaluate some real state for your
retirements with a low cost  living lifestyle like a king
and , with today's technologies and internet for data , one can trade almost
anywhere. (also consider the tax angle advabtages
if you are already very successful in your trading activities).


Well, now am beginning to give stock tips, next , are you by chance in anyway in
the market for some Ginsu knives? Have
some trader specials.  Haha!






The Omega Man (TM) wrote:

>
>
> Felix, you out there?  What is your view of the situation from your post in
> the Philippines?  If you were an American investing for the long term, would
> you put money into Asia?  If so, where?